Are gun owners mentally ill?

 Some anti-gun people think owning a gun is a sign of some kind of mental abnormality. According to General Social Survey data, gun owners are not more likely to have ever suffered from some sort of mental health problem.

Which race has the most people with antisocial personality disorder?

 

Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 36,309 respondents in the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions–III. I was surprised that this study published the percent of each racial/ethnic group that has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Having ASPD is closely related to being a psychopath. 

Natives have the highest rate -- 11.9%. Blacks are second with 5.3%. Asians are at the bottom with 1.9%. So the Native rate is 6.3 times that of Asians. 

The heritability of ASPD is around 50%.

This CDC table shows that the Native homicide rate is high (the victim rate is a proxy for the offender rate) but the Black rate is higher. Why would that be if ASPD is more common among Natives?

  

It could be that Blacks tend to live in urban settings, while Natives are more likely to be rural. Urban life seems to be conducive to crime. Cities enable a critical mass of antisocial individuals to come together and form gangs that produce more crime than would be committed by solitary individuals. 

The high Native rate seems consistent with Harpending and Cochran hypothesis that groups with weak histories of agrarian life, which selects for submissiveness, will tend to be more disagreeable.

Are Trump supporters fatter than Democrats?

I challenge people not on the right when the data don't support what they're claiming, so I ought to be fair and report when the data do back them up. Matt Iglesias and Richard Hanania recently claimed on Twitter that Trump supporters are fatter than (woke) Democrats. The table below (GSS data) shows that the average Trump voter was about 6 pounds heavier than the typical Hillary supporter in 2016. 

UPDATE: While lying in bed this morning, I realized I needed to look at the sexes separately since women were more likely to vote for Hillary, and they weigh less. I see that a commenter was thinking the same:

You can see that while male Trump supporters weigh more, female Trump supporters weigh less than Hillary voters. Maybe later I can take height differences into account.

UPDATE: Not much height difference:

Are Trump supporters dumber than Democrats?

Centrists like Richard Hanania go on endlessly about how dumb MAGA is compared to Democrats. These types are flat wrong, but everyone assumes they're right based on data showing lower IQs for conservatives. Here are the mean IQ scores for those who voted for Trump vs. Hillary. The mean is slightly higher for Trump voters. At least get your facts straight before mocking people.  

How many Whites crack the top ten greatest singers of all time?

I like to occasionally check the Rolling Stone list of the greatest singers of all time to look for updates and to get a sense of trends. Did you know that Blacks have gotten much better at singing since the last list was made? They now occupy all ten of the top ten slots, if we count biracial Mariah Carey. Despite a US population size that is roughly five times larger than that of Blacks, Whites simply cannot crack the top ten anymore. I suspect the answer for why Blacks are so much better is that St. George Floyd from his lofty palace in Heaven has blessed Blacks with voices even superior to those they enjoyed before Floyd's death.  

Are Whites happier if they value their ethnic identity?

Are Whites happier if they value their ethnic identity? General Social Survey participants were asked, "How important is your ethnic group membership to your sense of who you are?" About 39% of Whites who answered "very important" are very happy compared to around 30% of the other three levels of ethnic importance. 

These numbers are consistent with the theory that individuals are happier if they feel a strong connection to their race or ethnicity. The connection gives them a sense of meaning and value that goes beyond the isolated individual. 

What is interesting is that this theory is typically applied to non-Whites, and most advocates of this
perspective do not want Whites to identify strongly with their race. What is even more interesting is
that racial pride does not even appear to work for Blacks. Look at the numbers below. Blacks who 
place the least value on racial identification are the happiest. (A larger sample would be nice.)

And other races? The sample is too small, but it looks like the racially proud might be happier.

The stereotype of the proud White is that he is mentally disturbed and thus likely to be unhappy.
GSS data suggest the opposite.

Americans, left and right, are against sex ed for kids under 10

 

According to a new Harris poll, 86% of Republicans and even 60% of Democrats believe sex education for young children under 10 should be left to the parents. This is a winning issue for the GOP even if most parents feel their personal rights are not being violated (left panel). 

Are mixed-race people less happy?

People who are racially mixed often say they feel like they are in a racial "no man's land," neither one race nor the other. Are they less happy than people of only one race? Let's look at Black-Whites first (2021 GSS data): 

Mean happiness for White-Blacks (2.02) is slightly higher than the mean for Whites (1.96) or Blacks (1.90). Those who say their "race" is both Hispanic and White are less happy (1.78) than Whites (1.97) or Hispanics (2.08).

The same pattern is found for those who say they are both White and Native American: a mean of 1.82 versus 1.97 for Whites and 1.91 for Natives.

Finally, I merged Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans together and found that the White-NE Asian group tended to be less happy (1.78) than either Whites (1.97) or NE Asians (2.01). 

So with the exception of Black-Whites, people of mixed race tend to be a little less happy than those of one race. There is some support here for the contention that having a mixed identity is not conducive to happiness. 

Suspended permanently from Twitter!

Since 2015, I've spent most of my time commenting on Twitter, knowing that one day I would get the axe. That day came last week, and I was told the suspension is permanent. I have no idea what the problem is, but I do know that even if the ban is not forever, I don't want to invest time and energy into something that can end at any moment. So I plan to return to my old ways of posting data analyses here. I'll save my posts in case Google finally bans me. I will focus a little less on GSS data since I'm running out of uncovered topics, but I will continue to post items the left considers blasphemous. It's not fun otherwise.  

Progs more likely to seek revenge than conservatives

 Progs love to tout what lovers of humankind they are. The General Social Survey asked people if they sometimes try to get even rather than forgive and forget. 20.8% of conservatives answered true, but liberals are 1.7 times more likely to seek revenge (34.5%).

Did Ireland used to be dumb? A look at eminent scientists

Some researchers have claimed that the average IQ of the Irish used to be really low by West European standards but has recently caught up, and this shows that IQ can be raised by improving social conditions. 

Russell Warne recently conducted an analysis of 55 samples of 29k Irish examinees, the IQ data collected in various years from 1916 to 2015. The mean was found to be 98.0. As you see in his graph below, there was at most a slight increase in mean IQ over this period. This pattern contradicts the optimistic nurturist view. 

 

A reality-check approach might offer a nice complement to the IQ data. If mean Irish IQ were, say, 85 a century ago, we should not expect Ireland to have produced many eminent scientists. 

I will rely on the inventories of significant scientists, mathematicians, and technologists listed in Charles Murray's Human Accomplishment. I will use Scotland, Denmark, Norway, and Finland as comparisons. They are NW European countries with population sizes roughly similar to that of Ireland, and as far as I know, no one has claimed that those countries used to be low-IQ. 

You can see from the lists below that Scotland smokes the other countries with 57 significant figures. Pound for pound, Scotland is an impressive country. Denmark is a distant second with 14 eminent men, but Ireland is a close third with 13 significant figures. Norway has 8, and poor Finland only has one. Impressive country but not for its past scientists. 

So Ireland falls to the middle of the pack. No reason here to think that the Irish used to be dumb but have only recently improved their intelligence level.  

Scotland -- 57 Significant Figures

Astronomy
Thomas Henderson

Biology
Robert Brown
John Haldane
John McCleod

Chemistry
Archibald Couper
John Cranston
William Cullen
James Dewar
Alexander Fleck
Thomas Graham
Charles Macintosh
William Ramsay
Daniel Rutherford
James Swinburne
James Waterston
James Young

Earth Sciences
James Ewing
James Hall
James Hutton
Charles Lyell
William Maclure
Roderick Murchison
William Nicol
Charles Thomson

Physics
David Brewster
James Maxwell
William Thomson
Charles Wilson

Math
James Gregory
Colin Maclaurin
John Napier
James Stirling
Joseph Wedderburn

Medicine
Charles Bell
Alexander Fleming
John Hunter
James Lind
Patrick Manson
Edward Mellanby
John Pringle
James Simpson
Robert Whytt

Technology
John Baird
Alexander Ball
Patrick Bell
James Dewar
Kirkpatrick Macmillan
John McAdams
Andrew Meikle
William Murdock
James Nasmyth
William Rankine
James Thomson
William Thomson
Robert Watson-Watt
James Watt
James Young 

Denmark -- 14 Significant Figures

Astronomy
Tycho Brahe
John Dryer
Ejnar Hertzsprung
Ole Romer

Biology
Peter Dam
Johan Fabricius
Hans Gram
Wilhelm Johannsen

Chemistry
Soren Sorensen

Earth Sciences
0

Physics
Erasmus Batholin
Niels Bohr
Hans Orsted

Math
0

Medicine
Niels Finsen

Technology
Valdemar Poulsen

Norway -- 8 Significant Figures

Astronomy
0

Biology
0

Chemistry
Cato Guldberg

Earth Sciences
Jakob Bjerknes
Vilhelm Bjerknes
Peter Waage

Physics
0

Math
Niels Abel
Marius Lie
Caspar Wess

Medicine
Johannes Fibiger

Technology
0

Finland -- 1 Significant Figure

Astronomy
0

Biology
0

Chemistry
0

Earth Sciences
Johan Gadolin

Physics
0

Math
0

Medicine
0

Technology
0

Ireland -- 13 Significant Figures 

Astronomy
William Parsons

Biology
John Tyndall

Chemistry
Thomas Andrews
John Bernal
Adair Crawford

Earth Sciences
Francis Beaufort
Edward Sabine

Physics
George Fitzgerald
George Stokes
George Stoney
Ernest Walton

Math
0

Medicine
0  

Technology
Arthur Kennedy
Charles Parsons

What do GSS data say about the view that many blacks do not value education?

 

Some people argue that blacks do not perform academically as well as other groups because they lack a culture that places a high value on education. Is such a view supported by General Social Survey data? In 2021, respondents were asked, "Please show for each of these how important you think it is for getting ahead in life . . . c. Having a good education yourself?" Answers ranged from 'essential' to 'not important at all.' 

The table displayed below shows the distribution of responses for blacks (raceacs = 1) and non-blacks. 46.2% of blacks say education is essential, compared to only 31.8% of others. This contradicts the claim that African Americans do not value getting an education as others do. 

You might respond that blacks have been taught the importance of education, but many only pay lip service to the idea and have not internalized the attitude. If true, this points to the impotence of attempting to improve performance through teaching and stressing certain values.   

How much has mean IQ declined in the US?

 I looked at General Social Survey data to see how much IQ has declined in the US since the early 70s when the GSS was started. I set whites tested in the 70s to a mean of 100, so they are the comparison group. Here's what I found: 

Mean IQ for the 2010s is 99.6, so compared to 1970s whites, the mean has dropped very little. It didn't drop more since we see a Flynn effect among all racial groups. The negative impact occurs because of the tremendous growth of Hispanics who have a 2010s mean IQ of 94 shown below. (All numbers exclude immigrants since they are likely to do poorly on an English-language IQ test). 

How strongly does religiosity predict fertility?

The total fertility rate in the US has fallen to 1.7.  That means the average woman will have fewer than two children, not enough to replace the population. Does greater religiosity predict fertility, and if so, how strongly? I organized data on the total fertility rate (TFR)(World Population Review, 2021 data) and the percent of the country thinking religion is important (World Values Survey, various years) for 78 countries. The Spearman rank correlation is .61 (p < .001), which means that religiosity strongly predicts higher fertility. Here is a scatterplot:

Here is the scatterplot with country labels:

If we assume that a TRF of at least 2.1--replacement level--is best, then a country evidently needs close to half or more of the population believing that religion is important. 

Are mass shootings on the rise because young men no longer believe in hell?

According to Steve Sailer, the mass shootings committed by disciplined, skilled killers are on the rise because fewer young men fear there is a hell waiting for them. Do the data support this? 

The General Social Survey asked respondents, "Do you believe in hell?" I lumped those who answered "definitely yes" and "probably yes" into one group, and the same for the no's. Here are the results for men ages 18-29:

The percent not believing in hell bounces around a little 1991-2008, but it jumps up to 47% in 2018.  

Here is a graph of the trend in high body count mass shootings in America--the type usually committed by the kind of men Steve is talking about:

The rate accelerates around the same time we see a jump in skepticism about hell. 

Have liberals veered left on abortion?

Political parties have gotten more polarized in the past few years. Is this true for abortion attitudes, too? Using General Social Survey (GSS) data, I created the following graphs:

Liberal Women

In 2006, 60% of self-described liberal women favored abortion for any reason. That number grew and jumped from 2018 to 2021. It's now 88%. 

Liberal Men

We see the same trend for liberal men. By 2021, the percent in favor was 79%. Currently, few liberals have a problem with unrestricted abortion. 

Moderate Women

It's trended up for moderate women as well. They are now at 54%

Moderate Men

Moderate men are now at 57% approval. 

Conservative Women

By contrast, attitudes among conservative women have stayed fairly steady, the current level of approval is at  27%.

Conservative Men

The story is similar for conservative men. They are currently at 34% approval. Overall, conservatives have not changed much, whereas liberals have veered left on the issue, especially in the last few years. There is more consensus among liberals than conservatives. 

Is "Latino Lover" a thing?

I was watching "Being the Ricardos" last night, and one of the film's themes was Desi Arnaz' infidelities. It made me wonder if there is any truth to the stereotype of the Latin lover. 

The General Social Survey asked married men if they had ever cheated on their spouse. Here are the percentages (N = 4,243):

Percent of married men who have cheated

Non-Hispanic black  25.2
Black Hispanic  20.0
White Hispanic  16.9
Non-Hispanic white 16.3
Hispanic--other race  15.0
Non-Hispanic--other race  13.9

I calculated percentages for each race because I know it is relevant for infidelity. There is evidence here that black men cheat more than other groups, but rates are not high for Hispanics.

The 2021 General Social Survey: How many transgenders?

 The 2021 General Social Survey is out. Respondents were asked their gender. Here are the results:

I am interested in the transgender issue, but let's take notice of an important GSS fact: It is heavily skewed toward women, so you need to take this into account when looking at results that differ by gender. For example, in 2021 8.4% of men do not believe in God, but only 5.1% of women believe the same way, so an excess of women in the sample will skew the results for the total sample. 

But let's focus on transgenders: They are 0.3% of the sample. This is 3 per 1,000, folks, not radically different from what I was taught in college many years ago. The figure is also similar to that of the California study that reported .35% of the state is transgender. 

You do see 0.4% who don't fit into the other boxes, so there is a small percentage of confused people out there. 

The GSS is a sample of adults (18+), so the apparent growth in transgenderism is occurring among teens. 

What percent of Americans under 40 are Christians?

 A follower on Twitter indicated that he is not Christian and wondered what percent of Americans under 40 are. Well, you know I'm a sucker for that kind of question. The General Social Survey asked people about their religious affiliation in 2018--the latest published data. Here are the results: 

If we add up the numbers for Christians, we get 59%, and it's probably closer to 60% since I did not include "Other", which, for example, probably includes quite a few Mormons, who consider themselves Christians and restorationists, not Protestants. If we we create a table with adults 40 and over we get this:

Added up, 78.2% of older Americans are Christians, so the percentage among young people is dramatically lower. It's not a coincidence that many young people also favor socialism.  

Is skin tone correlated with job prestige?

The General Social Survey rated the skin darkness of a sample of black Americans, ranging from "very dark brown" to "very light brown." Biologically oriented researchers might see the question as a rough measure of the percentage of European ancestry, while sociologists would see it as a measure of discrimination--lighter-skinned blacks getting better treatment. Respondents were also given a job prestige score that ranges from 16 to 80--16 is a shoeshine and 80 is a physician. Here are the job prestige means listed by skin tone:

You can see that average job prestige tends to rise with lighter skin. The mean for blacks with "very light brown" skin is roughly two-thirds of a standard deviation higher than the mean for "very dark skin" blacks. 

The pattern can be interpreted in at least two ways: 1) genetic--blacks with more European ancestry tend to rise in the status hierarchy much more than African blacks, or 2) sociological--whites discriminate more against darker blacks, and perhaps light-skinned blacks have white (privileged) relatives who gave them advantages. 

For several reasons, I'm inclined toward the genetic explanation. For one, my experience is that when a white person is interacting with a black person, his thought is, "I'm talking with a black person," not, "I'm talking with a light-skinned black person." For another, how do those Nigerian immigrants do so well in the US when their skin tends to be so dark? The sociologist would predict severe discrimination. The biologist would argue that African immigrants are a select group of Africans--above average in IQ and drive--and this overwhelms any bias they might experience.