Thursday, May 19, 2022

How strongly does religiosity predict fertility?

The total fertility rate in the US has fallen to 1.7.  That means the average woman will have fewer than two children, not enough to replace the population. Does greater religiosity predict fertility, and if so, how strongly? I organized data on the total fertility rate (TFR)(World Population Review, 2021 data) and the percent of the country thinking religion is important (World Values Survey, various years) for 78 countries. The Spearman rank correlation is .61 (p < .001), which means that religiosity strongly predicts higher fertility. Here is a scatterplot:












Here is the scatterplot with country labels:













If we assume that a TRF of at least 2.1--replacement level--is best, then a country evidently needs close to half or more of the population believing that religion is important. 

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    Now listen. This is an excellent blog, both in itself and for the example it sets. About a third to a half of the country is no longer under the spell of the elite and the anti-civilization Leftists who dominate its cultural apparatus. BUT ... they've largely now under the influence of a variety of charlatans and wackos.

    And this is despite there being hundreds, even thousands, of sensible, well-educated people who are not in the grip of the crooks and crazies -- pick up any of the journals of the Right -- National Review, First Things, New Criterion, Chronicles of American Culture, Claremont Review of Books, Commentary, American Conservative, City Journal ... and you cannot be fail to be impressed with the calibre of our intellectual artillery. And yet ... the base follows Alex Jones, believes in QAnon, loves people who think wildfires may be caused by the Rothschilds' space lasers.

    We need to do something about this. I'm not sure what, but the first step is to access the data that is relevant to the problem. Of course, the Leftist press loves to publish studies showing that some high percentage of Republican voters believe [fill in absurdity here]. But they cherry-pick.

    So ... could you -- assuming the data is there -- give us some hard data on this question. Who, on either side of the barricades, believes what ... to what is it correlated? And above all, have their been an reliable studies on how people come to shake off silly beliefs -- assuming this happens?

    Again, congratulations on your excellent work.

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How strongly does religiosity predict fertility?

The total fertility rate in the US has fallen to 1.7.  That means the average woman will have fewer than two children, not enough to replace...