Friday, April 30, 2021

An updated analysis of the 2020 election: CPS data

In December, I posted data that make me skeptical about the integrity of the 2020 election. This is an update with new data.

In the December analysis, I reported that 158.4 million voted for US President but based on an estimate derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), only 158.1 million were registered. Impossible. The CPS didn't have current data in December. Now they do, and they report that 168.3 million were registered in November 2020. This stunned me since the CPS estimated only 153.1 million in November 2018, so total registrations increased 15.2 million in only two years, 2018-20. For context, here's the total number registered by year since 1968:

Total number registered to vote (in millions)

1968       86.6

1972       98.5

1976       97.8

1980     105.1

1984     116.1

1988     118.6

1992     126.6

1996     127.7

2000     129.5

2004     142.1

2008     146.3

2012     153.2

2016     157.6

2018     153.1

2020     168.3  

The biggest four-year increase was 2000-2004 with 12.6 million additional registrations. Such a big increase makes the 10.7 million 2016-2020 plausible, but it's weird that the total went from 157.6 million in 2016 down to 153.1 million in 2018, then it increased 15.2 million in only two years, a bigger increase than any 4-year increase since 1968! Weird but possible. By the way, the margin of error for the CPS is less than a million.  

168.3 million registered people in November 2020 means 94.1% of registered voters voted for President. Election experts say that 90-95% of registered voter voting is indicative of election fraud. Countries like Australia that mandate voting can't get 94% of registered voters to vote. 

For context, here are the percentage of registered voters who voted going back to 1960:

Percent of registered voters who voted

1960   107.8

1964     95.1

1968     89.4

1972     79.8

1976     77.7

1980     76.5

1984     74.6

1988     74.5

1992     71.2

1996     65.9

2000     67.5

2004     70.0

2008     89.8

2012     84.3

2016     86.8

2020     94.1

The years 1960 and 1964 look screwy, but the only other year that looks suspicious is 2020. I'm still not convinced that there was not enough funny business to change the election outcome. 

By the way, according to CPS, 154.6 million people said they voted. According to the official count, 3.8 million additional votes were cast. 

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