Thursday, March 17, 2016

Trump should win AZ



Am I missing something. Conventional wisdom says that no one breaks Trump's way in the last few days. Exist polls from Tuesday by the NYT beg to differ as you can see above.  According to RCP, Trump is up 13 points in AZ with one-third undecided.  If AZ is anything at all like FL, a plurality of late-deciders should go to Trump, and he should win. 
at
Labels:

1 comment:

  1. Audacious Epigone4:07 PM

    To pithily answer your rhetorical question: No, you were not missing anything.

    The punditry class has been and continues to be embarrassingly incorrect in nearly every attempt they make at prognostication. What I am missing is why they are still taken seriously. Guarantee you or I could run circles around a Fox News "expert" panel predicting outcomes on so and so primary night.

    ReplyDelete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)

Are gun owners mentally ill?

  Some anti-gun people think owning a gun is a sign of some kind of mental abnormality. According to General Social Survey data, gun owners ...

  • Most important predictor of reduced family size?
    Which factor reduces family size the most? Below are the standardized OLS regression coefficients for a sample of whites ages 40-59: Stand...
  • (no title)
    More on trust: As a follow-up to the last post, I wondered about the level of trust in Asian and Muslim countries. Based on World Values Sur...
  • (no title)
    The plot thickens: As a follow-up to the last post, I wanted to see if the risk of arrest varies by hair color. I found that people with red...