## Saturday, August 11, 2012

### Falling teen pregnancy and abortion

This is a great article at Slate that provides evidence that later onset of sex and increased use of IUDs in particular have reduced teenage pregnancy and abortion significantly. The author explains that people, especially young people, do not use condoms or take the pill reliably. And it sounds like modern IUDs are superior to the old ones. (Thanks to Jason Malloy).

1. Do you take requests?

Presumably home buyers are influenced by the crime rate in their new prospective neighborhood. So a house in a safe area should be worth more than an identical house in a dangerous area.

So it should be possible to regress race and murder on home prices. If a black person moves in to replace a white homeowner, what is the price paid by those in the neighborhood? If it's only a few cents that's one thing but if it's thousands of dollars that's quite another.

I could do the analysis myself but I'm lazy.

Albertosaurus

2. I'll look for data.

3. Anonymous8:02 AM

The population of whites is 82.9%, of blacks it is 12.6%, and other is 4.5%. The homicide rates for each group are: 4.5 for whites, 34.4 for blacks, and 4.1 for other (1980-2008 DOJ stats). Now, (.829 * 4.5) + (.126 * 34.4) + (.044 * 4.1) = 3.7305 + 4.3344 + 0.1804 = 8.2453

4.3344 of 8.2453 = 52.5%

Blacks are responsible for 52.5% of an average US homicide rate of 8.2453.

Is this correct?

4. Anonymous8:23 AM

IUDs are a great American solution. We're too weak-willed to control ourselves, so do it the American way and offer a technological solution to a moral problem. See also gastric bypass surgery.

5. Anonymous9:19 AM

The population of whites is 82.9%, of blacks it is 12.6%, and other is 4.5%. The homicide rates for each group are: 4.5 for whites, 34.4 for blacks, and 4.1 for other (1980-2008 DOJ stats). Now, (.829 * 4.5) + (.126 * 34.4) + (.044 * 4.1) = 3.7305 + 4.3344 + 0.1804 = 8.2453

4.3344 of 8.2453 = 52.5%

Blacks are responsible for 52.5% of an average US homicide rate of 8.2453 per 100,000.

Is this correct?

Here, I use other expanded population data:

US population breakdown: 16.3% Hispanic, 63.7% white, 12.2% black, AI/AN 0.7%, A/PI 4.9%. Homicide rate from CDC 2007 stats.

(.163 * 7.6) + (.637 * 2.7) + (.122 * 23.1) + (.007 * 7.8) + (.049 * 2.4) = 1.2388 + 1.7199 + 2.8182 + 0.0546 + 0.1176 = 5.9491 per 100,000

2.8182 of 5.9491 = 47.3%

47.3% of the US homicide rate of 5.9491 per 100,000 is because of blacks. Is this correct and why?

6. Anonymous12:40 PM