Friday, April 03, 2009
Gay marriage and Republican prospects
Do decisions like Iowa's State Supreme Court to allow same-sex marriages provide the Republican Party with an issue that will appeal to moderates in future elections? According to the 2008 General Social Survey, the answer is yes. The top graphs shows attitudes on the issue by political orientation for white Americans; the bottom one is for Hispanics--folks who are supposedly swing voters (I'm holding back the laughter).
First, look how strong the relationship is for whites. Close to 70 percent of those who are extremely conservative strongly disagree that gay people should be able to marry, compared to only 14 percent of extremely liberal Americans.
But the issue is moderates. They are 37% of whites in this sample--a very big group. Only 29% of them agree or strongly agree with granting the right. When economic concerns die down, and that's a big when, judicial assertiveness might help Republicans.
But look at Hispanics. You know, the rock solid social conservative group that they are. The moderates among them are pretty much split on the marriage issue. Friggin' waste of time.