Who is more likely to be arrested--a white or black rapist?

Looking at the period 2005-2010, Steve Sailer shows that the black rate rape was 3.5 times higher than the white/Hispanic rate. His calculations are based on a very large national survey of Americans that asks about being a victim of crime and the characteristics of offenders.

If we do the same calculation based on FBI arrest data for the years 2008-2010 (2005-2007 are not available), the black rate is 3.1 times higher. What this tells us is that black rapists are less likely to get arrested than white/Hispanic rapists. The bias at the level of arrest is in favor of blacks and is in direct contradiction to the message that is drummed into us on a daily basis that the criminal justice system is deeply racist.

Study finds ZERO evidence of criminal justice bias against blacks

You should follow the research done by these biosocial criminologists. They are doing actual science:

One of the most consistent findings in the criminological literature is that African American males are arrested, convicted, and incarcerated at rates that far exceed those of any other racial or ethnic group. This racial disparity is frequently interpreted as evidence that the criminal justice system is racist and biased against African American males. Much of the existing literature purportedly supporting this interpretation, however, fails to estimate properly specified statistical models that control for a range of individual-level factors. The current study was designed to address this shortcoming by analyzing a sample of African American and White males drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Analysis of these data revealed that African American males are significantly more likely to be arrested and incarcerated when compared to White males. This racial disparity, however, was completely accounted for after including covariates for self-reported lifetime violence and IQ.

Watch out for people with green eyes: In 2006, the NYPD recorded data on over 500,000 stops in order to estimate how much of a problem officers have with racial bias. Here are the percent of stops that resulted in an arrest:


Percent of stops resulting in an arrest

Asian/Pacific Islander 4.4
Black 4.0
American Indian 3.0
Black Hispanics 4.5
White Hispanics 4.3
Whites 4.8
Other 2.6

I see zero evidence here of bias against non-whites. This, in spite of the fact Hispanics and especially blacks are much more belligerent than other groups.

But the more interesting part. For every racial category with sufficient numbers, people with green eyes are significantly more likely to be arrested. The overall arrest rate is 4.1 percent, and here are the percent with green eyes who are arrested:


Percent of people with green eyes who are arrested

Black 7.3 (N = 820)
Black Hispanic 7.2 (N = 207)
White Hispanic 7.0 (N = 1,626)
White 7.4 (3,802)
All cases 7.1 (N = 6,787)

People with green eyes, regardless of race, are 1.7 times more likely to get hauled in. Does anyone have an explanation for this?

No bias in the criminal justice system: In the last post's comments, readers debated whether the criminal justice system is racially biased or not. At one time, I assumed it was true. When I was 18 and gullible. Hollywood, the news, and my pot-smoking, pony-tailed sociology professor all claimed the system was rife with it.

The funny thing is that research conducted by very liberal criminologists--the best in the world--shows that, while there are episodes of racism, there are also episodes of paternalism, but there is no systemic or intentional bias.

From Heather MacDonald's piece in the City Journal:

In 1997, criminologists Robert Sampson and Janet Lauritsen reviewed the massive literature on charging and sentencing. They concluded that “large racial differences in criminal offending,” not racism, explained why more blacks were in prison proportionately than whites and for longer terms. A 1987 analysis of Georgia felony convictions, for example, found that blacks frequently received disproportionately lenient punishment. A 1990 study of 11,000 California cases found that slight racial disparities in sentence length resulted from blacks’ prior records and other legally relevant variables. A 1994 Justice Department survey of felony cases from the country’s 75 largest urban areas discovered that blacks actually had a lower chance of prosecution following a felony than whites did and that they were less likely to be found guilty at trial. Following conviction, blacks were more likely to receive prison sentences, however—an outcome that reflected the gravity of their offenses as well as their criminal records.

Another criminologist—easily as liberal as Sampson—reached the same conclusion in 1995: “Racial differences in patterns of offending, not racial bias by police and other officials, are the principal reason that such greater proportions of blacks than whites are arrested, prosecuted, convicted and imprisoned,” Michael Tonry wrote in Malign Neglect. (Tonry did go on to impute malign racial motives to drug enforcement, however.) The media’s favorite criminologist, Alfred Blumstein, found in 1993 that blacks were significantly underrepresented in prison for homicide compared with their presence in arrest.

Sampson, Tonry, and Blumstein are surpassed by perhaps only James Q. Wilson in their status among criminologists. The more ignorant the commenter, the more one is likely to say the system is rigged. Community college instructors who never read anything but their assigned textbooks just KNOW the system is designed to ruin the lives of blacks.

Sure there are bad apples, but there are way too many safeguards for them to have their way. Plus, like the famous Crip Kody Scott said, cops just want to catch the bad guys. But liberals LOVE to believe that under the badge of every cop lies a hateful heart.