tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-261884782024-03-27T16:53:26.603-07:00InductivistGroups are different. Get over it. Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.comBlogger2144125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-79376362295241663512023-07-13T13:02:00.006-07:002023-07-13T13:02:57.069-07:00Are gun owners mentally ill?<p> <span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; white-space-collapse: preserve;">Some anti-gun people think owning a gun is a sign of some kind of mental abnormality. According to General Social Survey data, gun owners are not more likely to have ever suffered from some sort of mental health problem.</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white; color: #0f1419; font-family: TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 20px; white-space-collapse: preserve;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfcH8dz9yhaTras4OXlZoR6ehw-ntGX7Lom7YVUtFzqUrW-jW7ByY01Sz9U2yyCNi9o8t2kireyjyfo_ihhsNGm0OUk_SgBfWBixEWVwahDXiAVDQNkzVsu06QKlcT0q9VhMrY0FbTSgXuhEmGvQEhP5FLBX8mJHSPGWecsf8kUABRpkm7m-7X7A" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="729" height="289" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgfcH8dz9yhaTras4OXlZoR6ehw-ntGX7Lom7YVUtFzqUrW-jW7ByY01Sz9U2yyCNi9o8t2kireyjyfo_ihhsNGm0OUk_SgBfWBixEWVwahDXiAVDQNkzVsu06QKlcT0q9VhMrY0FbTSgXuhEmGvQEhP5FLBX8mJHSPGWecsf8kUABRpkm7m-7X7A=w400-h289" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-78586892516486382832023-07-12T08:47:00.003-07:002023-07-12T08:59:56.454-07:00Which race has the most people with antisocial personality disorder?<p> </p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 36,309 respondents in the 2012-2013 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions–III. I was surprised that this <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5025322/pdf/nihms-745345.pdf">study</a> published the percent of each racial/ethnic group that has antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Having ASPD is closely related to being a psychopath. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">Natives have the highest rate -- 11.9%. Blacks are second with 5.3%. Asians are at the bottom with 1.9%. So the Native rate is 6.3 times that of Asians. </span></p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjpYCvzjk52E0hDHjob9160qDjpTirPC7nHYSdgSJ85gjFs1Db1Bv6HCiP24Hfurd4IuVMnIBd81d1nzD-TCaqFi7Vvk-hlbbb1bDsmGrtoYA_dt2j4AA-Mt6oE0lVreXXZNlqpIg_p_zfbTnRqAC3dJosZ1SiMNr5KWG5Ey908M9bU1HGHJuR_3g" style="clear: left; display: inline; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="620" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjpYCvzjk52E0hDHjob9160qDjpTirPC7nHYSdgSJ85gjFs1Db1Bv6HCiP24Hfurd4IuVMnIBd81d1nzD-TCaqFi7Vvk-hlbbb1bDsmGrtoYA_dt2j4AA-Mt6oE0lVreXXZNlqpIg_p_zfbTnRqAC3dJosZ1SiMNr5KWG5Ey908M9bU1HGHJuR_3g=w400-h236" width="400" /></a></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">The heritability of ASPD is around <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/article-abstract/497271">50%</a>.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">This CDC table shows that the Native homicide rate is high (the victim rate is a proxy for the offender rate) but the Black rate is higher. Why would that be if ASPD is more common among Natives?</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhE3x-dQJzQ48DU5nOWeSkqmAzBEI2CFGh2OXeeOGitLEn_re3dSdN867kzpASkeTOd_7cfu6bWgnyX1y56ULdm12eY3ErGQ_tLYkyegXQFUM004coxlBI2pLqL7w-nBcgfbW6tST3UyEDlq9qNWd0m52wR4liALf2pAPWlgYJ-hmRu0fMBD7Yy-w" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="1091" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhE3x-dQJzQ48DU5nOWeSkqmAzBEI2CFGh2OXeeOGitLEn_re3dSdN867kzpASkeTOd_7cfu6bWgnyX1y56ULdm12eY3ErGQ_tLYkyegXQFUM004coxlBI2pLqL7w-nBcgfbW6tST3UyEDlq9qNWd0m52wR4liALf2pAPWlgYJ-hmRu0fMBD7Yy-w=w400-h220" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">It could be that Blacks tend to live in urban settings, while Natives are more likely to be rural. Urban life seems to be conducive to crime. Cities enable a critical mass of antisocial individuals to come together and form gangs that produce more crime than would be committed by solitary individuals. </span></p><p>The high Native rate seems consistent with Harpending and Cochran hypothesis that groups with weak histories of agrarian life, which selects for submissiveness, will tend to be more disagreeable.<br /><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-73366200726502932502023-06-26T22:09:00.004-07:002023-06-27T18:31:47.877-07:00Are Trump supporters fatter than Democrats? <p>I challenge people not on the right when the data don't support what they're claiming, so I ought to be fair and report when the data do back them up. Matt Iglesias and Richard Hanania recently claimed on Twitter that Trump supporters are fatter than (woke) Democrats. The table below (GSS data) shows that the average Trump voter was about 6 pounds heavier than the typical Hillary supporter in 2016. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLgXCsjGNbtGGfR3loR3XD3nlvz-ffYb82CH-dEx5Dv5wqnR6pMLrKjgrkrvn6BgUDv8YZLzTHiz80occBLWxd9q2SM4QCVVKcCl83nAHy_iIZmJT07JFf8hMLZUajl0ftEouUuG62hpUxF3Sx0Fn00FccSxSvbRrLZD5C7tfJJlz447TSA7unZg" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="581" data-original-width="709" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLgXCsjGNbtGGfR3loR3XD3nlvz-ffYb82CH-dEx5Dv5wqnR6pMLrKjgrkrvn6BgUDv8YZLzTHiz80occBLWxd9q2SM4QCVVKcCl83nAHy_iIZmJT07JFf8hMLZUajl0ftEouUuG62hpUxF3Sx0Fn00FccSxSvbRrLZD5C7tfJJlz447TSA7unZg=w400-h328" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>UPDATE: While lying in bed this morning, I realized I needed to look at the sexes separately since women were more likely to vote for Hillary, and they weigh less. I see that a commenter was thinking the same:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEipuAOg_12B0oeADxPvV5LF0_6ZNdklD4I1fp03DZ-jkly8_hVMUO2rmxnmTzKBlS1rSojP2jvR85IvzvYOTCHAUIzDWp0qd1UNb8vEbEHJLRSFj3kvc8RtOIcrEoi7HaaJQAodhnnWFzRM76uvssTHNp1cMuZlgwBiPrFmdmegWs6x-H5LLYQsTw" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="633" data-original-width="710" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEipuAOg_12B0oeADxPvV5LF0_6ZNdklD4I1fp03DZ-jkly8_hVMUO2rmxnmTzKBlS1rSojP2jvR85IvzvYOTCHAUIzDWp0qd1UNb8vEbEHJLRSFj3kvc8RtOIcrEoi7HaaJQAodhnnWFzRM76uvssTHNp1cMuZlgwBiPrFmdmegWs6x-H5LLYQsTw=w400-h357" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>You can see that while male Trump supporters weigh more, female Trump supporters weigh <i>less</i> than Hillary voters. Maybe later I can take height differences into account.</p><p>UPDATE: Not much height difference:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhTyF5JeQ9-3-ul-kZoKaX5i-y_XDjkSuRCStrF5UGdW5So-ezwY3WxG9zaFmiezk5dmwKvRtUL87KYjU-mmyVok-oNRWQNuVQs_x_RG4ji0-3jd-wmLMjuNSHmp-5b091KJal99-9JsFx0T2U5Lg2xry425f2uBFLPk6Hpp5GPVRe5dK_OgLWR4A" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="609" data-original-width="720" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhTyF5JeQ9-3-ul-kZoKaX5i-y_XDjkSuRCStrF5UGdW5So-ezwY3WxG9zaFmiezk5dmwKvRtUL87KYjU-mmyVok-oNRWQNuVQs_x_RG4ji0-3jd-wmLMjuNSHmp-5b091KJal99-9JsFx0T2U5Lg2xry425f2uBFLPk6Hpp5GPVRe5dK_OgLWR4A=w400-h338" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-23172518477007807122023-06-23T15:41:00.002-07:002023-06-23T15:47:31.976-07:00Are Trump supporters dumber than Democrats? <p><span style="font-size: medium;">Centrists like Richard Hanania go on endlessly about how dumb MAGA is compared to Democrats. These types are flat wrong, but everyone assumes they're right based on data showing lower IQs for conservatives. Here are the mean IQ scores for those who voted for Trump vs. Hillary. The mean is slightly <i>higher</i> for Trump voters. At least get your facts straight before mocking people. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhRkKTOhd6Q1WHOCMv7cXeGQsYBc9mlwhxg1i7avF26zQHk3euBfQZzfNT1LFCDwov5lY6Eqt0Iwm1tRkZKPOzhrh_uby3OwDST-vpSFZg2BDeWTq0h6Z_yeD7ZGd0EVc6QoBuB4wpG4zUmvlES2A7_-9GWDJP02zpTlebMtipTHp05hLmtKpk5LA" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="604" data-original-width="864" height="280" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhRkKTOhd6Q1WHOCMv7cXeGQsYBc9mlwhxg1i7avF26zQHk3euBfQZzfNT1LFCDwov5lY6Eqt0Iwm1tRkZKPOzhrh_uby3OwDST-vpSFZg2BDeWTq0h6Z_yeD7ZGd0EVc6QoBuB4wpG4zUmvlES2A7_-9GWDJP02zpTlebMtipTHp05hLmtKpk5LA=w400-h280" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-39041888661960951832023-06-23T12:18:00.002-07:002023-06-23T13:55:52.247-07:00How many Whites crack the top ten greatest singers of all time?<p><span style="font-size: medium;">I like to occasionally check the Rolling Stone <a href="https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-lists/best-singers-all-time-1234642307/lady-gaga-107-1234643110/"><span style="color: red;">list</span></a> of the greatest singers of all time to look for updates and to get a sense of trends. Did you know that Blacks have gotten much better at singing since the last list was made? They now occupy all ten of the top ten slots, if we count biracial Mariah Carey. Despite a US population size that is roughly five times larger than that of Blacks, Whites simply cannot crack the top ten anymore. I suspect the answer for why Blacks are so much better is that St. George Floyd from his lofty palace in Heaven has blessed Blacks with voices even superior to those they enjoyed before Floyd's death. </span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiudTexwhjaex6nbG4RT7vO15InBFJlZPXRgXHAZp9664a5QRGjXHZNmdNoCE-JaXvIMmE-s6ZkwOi35YNEaiVjPsXGeEQ44KusogIe9nx8uAY2NKH6DYvYjdeewsBbnVCzMwcr12M-WQzwDrUeS0X7BbKhPkOQMEmPRz9D63GGeO0hU_HlpuWabQ" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="622" data-original-width="776" height="514" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiudTexwhjaex6nbG4RT7vO15InBFJlZPXRgXHAZp9664a5QRGjXHZNmdNoCE-JaXvIMmE-s6ZkwOi35YNEaiVjPsXGeEQ44KusogIe9nx8uAY2NKH6DYvYjdeewsBbnVCzMwcr12M-WQzwDrUeS0X7BbKhPkOQMEmPRz9D63GGeO0hU_HlpuWabQ=w640-h514" width="640" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-9170632979572528202023-06-21T16:04:00.006-07:002023-06-22T17:33:39.287-07:00Are Whites happier if they value their ethnic identity?<p><span style="font-size: medium;">Are Whites happier if they value their ethnic identity? General Social Survey participants were asked, "How important is your ethnic group membership to your sense of who you are?" About 39% of Whites who answered "very important" are very happy compared to around 30% of the other three levels of ethnic importance. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;">These numbers are consistent with the theory that individuals are happier if they feel a strong connection to their race or ethnicity. The connection gives them a sense of meaning and value that goes beyond the isolated individual. </span></p><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1BIqk-GiP0wUcN-vXXmOKnhskKX2wKONn0sJeXIKJ-PSJQmjuRMIZ2rI9AszZ28uoHm6OFV1T0gfXfvue5I5aIgep-5tbfgDzIWayVFTjKGs-QdaUT2VIgOvn78xXZHNhZPO3PVh0PMkz7jv-xAhjMa8qrN0ICcTBM3AviA4rRe_6YyMC2nLk5A" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="731" height="333" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj1BIqk-GiP0wUcN-vXXmOKnhskKX2wKONn0sJeXIKJ-PSJQmjuRMIZ2rI9AszZ28uoHm6OFV1T0gfXfvue5I5aIgep-5tbfgDzIWayVFTjKGs-QdaUT2VIgOvn78xXZHNhZPO3PVh0PMkz7jv-xAhjMa8qrN0ICcTBM3AviA4rRe_6YyMC2nLk5A=w400-h333" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre style="background-color: white; font-family: "Lucida Console", Monaco, Consolas, "Courier New", Courier, monospace;"><br /></pre><pre><span style="font-family: times;"><span style="font-size: medium;">What is interesting is that this theory is typically applied to non-Whites, and most advocates of this
perspective do not want Whites to identify strongly with their race. What is even more interesting is
that racial pride does not even appear to work for Blacks. Look at the numbers below. Blacks who
place the least value on racial identification are the happiest. (A larger sample would be nice.)<br /></span><br /></span><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxaUA_Sz6QFpg8lZZnbdXJcQL0KfXH64M6zvbyOlM5kZKajkv2BnnLTmGE0Woh0atemixXgIJhHX4I6MeZ5zOoDLwNeiYSh9HvIQtoTYfuYSPY5cgE8HQrgpXk9brTYw82-avwHzBipcl_Ff5XqguxAJM-0ulGPnMx9ocUsZjF6yJerKoOyfF5bw"></a><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxaUA_Sz6QFpg8lZZnbdXJcQL0KfXH64M6zvbyOlM5kZKajkv2BnnLTmGE0Woh0atemixXgIJhHX4I6MeZ5zOoDLwNeiYSh9HvIQtoTYfuYSPY5cgE8HQrgpXk9brTYw82-avwHzBipcl_Ff5XqguxAJM-0ulGPnMx9ocUsZjF6yJerKoOyfF5bw" style="background-color: white; clear: left; display: inline; font-family: times; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="727" height="334" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhxaUA_Sz6QFpg8lZZnbdXJcQL0KfXH64M6zvbyOlM5kZKajkv2BnnLTmGE0Woh0atemixXgIJhHX4I6MeZ5zOoDLwNeiYSh9HvIQtoTYfuYSPY5cgE8HQrgpXk9brTYw82-avwHzBipcl_Ff5XqguxAJM-0ulGPnMx9ocUsZjF6yJerKoOyfF5bw=w400-h334" width="400" /></a></pre><pre style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: times;"><br /><span style="font-size: medium;">And other races? The sample is too small, but it looks like the racially proud might be happier.</span></span></pre><pre style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: times; font-size: medium;">The stereotype of the proud White is that he is mentally disturbed and thus likely to be unhappy.
GSS data suggest the opposite.</span></pre><pre style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: times;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhespcIEMq0OjehBn94VlD2LGSukEZ-ovA-SQgWkzW271TZ0DzXoYVJHpIfhYyuKJ11iHiG6osWdsEdEb_8TAbvUNmyMsUPKQgbX5AD4j-1nnvfu4usyPvHAKTqFhP8kSpCDvCTO5qUGamd2p-qrJgVcCcGy0FJNXNVN9j_nGC53Vt3G-fyn1qIXA" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="721" height="324" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhespcIEMq0OjehBn94VlD2LGSukEZ-ovA-SQgWkzW271TZ0DzXoYVJHpIfhYyuKJ11iHiG6osWdsEdEb_8TAbvUNmyMsUPKQgbX5AD4j-1nnvfu4usyPvHAKTqFhP8kSpCDvCTO5qUGamd2p-qrJgVcCcGy0FJNXNVN9j_nGC53Vt3G-fyn1qIXA=w400-h324" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></pre><pre style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: times;"> </span></pre>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-3548425162332494712023-06-20T15:11:00.001-07:002023-06-20T15:11:16.147-07:00Americans, left and right, are against sex ed for kids under 10<p> </p><p>According to a new Harris poll, 86% of Republicans and even 60% of Democrats believe sex education for young children under 10 should be left to the parents. This is a winning issue for the GOP even if most parents feel their personal rights are not being violated (left panel). </p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhic3hRtW7x-vb1p8wzFkzTBNmjdjWiU1ARAMcnRb_8QbliBKl7qmn3T-yXXvnutAQKHR0iZl6TvS5000hVgiQK-9KNe9232-bzhkPEdybZ_x0VfCLon5n3uEh8skAUbh6uccsW2BMzwBmk1bheXkBGeR5_vuicKxO2BQeIX4qnXRR_1eCAFtpAeQ" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="689" data-original-width="1218" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhic3hRtW7x-vb1p8wzFkzTBNmjdjWiU1ARAMcnRb_8QbliBKl7qmn3T-yXXvnutAQKHR0iZl6TvS5000hVgiQK-9KNe9232-bzhkPEdybZ_x0VfCLon5n3uEh8skAUbh6uccsW2BMzwBmk1bheXkBGeR5_vuicKxO2BQeIX4qnXRR_1eCAFtpAeQ=w400-h226" width="400" /></a></p><p><br /><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-50351034481785513422023-06-20T08:33:00.001-07:002023-06-20T08:33:25.678-07:00Are mixed-race people less happy?<p>People who are racially mixed often say they feel like they are in a racial "no man's land," neither one race nor the other. Are they less happy than people of only one race? Let's look at Black-Whites first (2021 GSS data): </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyJ6L6h9qYlIXmFHgR3Atdz0GTCN6i8XYGMl21elTKYaRlurqWd99MEgQaKQJPdDt81xV4NbSxw66EN_YZFWAAI76joQZw0vOyPWx012qBuYha3vCDkECeQdV9a2Fb4cavJwdf-rg3I8ZfX2Bo4Uag0uxdslZKA8GGr8l5KDKtpJyUtKrrcWc0hw" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="616" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiyJ6L6h9qYlIXmFHgR3Atdz0GTCN6i8XYGMl21elTKYaRlurqWd99MEgQaKQJPdDt81xV4NbSxw66EN_YZFWAAI76joQZw0vOyPWx012qBuYha3vCDkECeQdV9a2Fb4cavJwdf-rg3I8ZfX2Bo4Uag0uxdslZKA8GGr8l5KDKtpJyUtKrrcWc0hw=w400-h358" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Mean happiness for White-Blacks (2.02) is slightly higher than the mean for Whites (1.96) or Blacks (1.90). Those who say their "race" is both Hispanic and White are less happy (1.78) than Whites (1.97) or Hispanics (2.08).<p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjajMEqchIvHF1gLfqXkXJrWQXZIwQS8gJg8MdPUqM7zhbw5cPXlqJul_mAdr3Q9uVv2lcEuKNliRxefNYXeg7RQv19alEcoKKP5D4z9gtb3NnpGeh7YKgXUbySvuEdodMnWfpUXMRO6e7wWzCj27qMSE-XfUrfB4WbBID8U0h2bBrQyIxRfVkT3g" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="707" height="325" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjajMEqchIvHF1gLfqXkXJrWQXZIwQS8gJg8MdPUqM7zhbw5cPXlqJul_mAdr3Q9uVv2lcEuKNliRxefNYXeg7RQv19alEcoKKP5D4z9gtb3NnpGeh7YKgXUbySvuEdodMnWfpUXMRO6e7wWzCj27qMSE-XfUrfB4WbBID8U0h2bBrQyIxRfVkT3g=w400-h325" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The same pattern is found for those who say they are both White and Native American: a mean of 1.82 versus 1.97 for Whites and 1.91 for Natives.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqcoDhsMnE0lafEDbG6D40_WSK2DZFlphf9FgkkEIIXYLm8S9_xNJWhxwe2683HqQQLyC6YiLRW4ZSd923wdjbzj6RJ__NLysmVrEAbiuJFmx7hXstn7oZ_vJsPxy-neBwTqWk9402B-_epH4aBu-CN9AjkyMjCtdVSySuMaR7GeRoGEMiTNNC5g" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="605" data-original-width="784" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiqcoDhsMnE0lafEDbG6D40_WSK2DZFlphf9FgkkEIIXYLm8S9_xNJWhxwe2683HqQQLyC6YiLRW4ZSd923wdjbzj6RJ__NLysmVrEAbiuJFmx7hXstn7oZ_vJsPxy-neBwTqWk9402B-_epH4aBu-CN9AjkyMjCtdVSySuMaR7GeRoGEMiTNNC5g=w400-h309" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Finally, I merged Chinese, Japanese, and Koreans together and found that the White-NE Asian group tended to be less happy (1.78) than either Whites (1.97) or NE Asians (2.01). </p><p>So with the exception of Black-Whites, people of mixed race tend to be a little less happy than those of one race. There is some support here for the contention that having a mixed identity is not conducive to happiness. </p><p><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifujZp0xq9lzI9MKZHMr7lace2PvfU9USX7noM5uvQGAO5zIOjbq723gnmCzfb4RgboMX3TvozPHDPTheNmE_UWJ3dC5Y1GHLRixbhboISz4RGFXk90FBHRZ-E_X7DLOhq1YSX9_HYYzEup6Xtbu2FGIhtxV5W617PU5MG9S-4ITI8m_71AX3qew" style="clear: left; display: inline !important; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="704" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEifujZp0xq9lzI9MKZHMr7lace2PvfU9USX7noM5uvQGAO5zIOjbq723gnmCzfb4RgboMX3TvozPHDPTheNmE_UWJ3dC5Y1GHLRixbhboISz4RGFXk90FBHRZ-E_X7DLOhq1YSX9_HYYzEup6Xtbu2FGIhtxV5W617PU5MG9S-4ITI8m_71AX3qew=w400-h362" width="400" /></a></p><p><br /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-44130169644518802222023-06-19T13:37:00.001-07:002023-06-19T13:37:43.648-07:00Suspended permanently from Twitter! <p>Since 2015, I've spent most of my time commenting on Twitter, knowing that one day I would get the axe. That day came last week, and I was told the suspension is permanent. I have no idea what the problem is, but I do know that even if the ban is not forever, I don't want to invest time and energy into something that can end at any moment. So I plan to return to my old ways of posting data analyses here. I'll save my posts in case Google finally bans me. I will focus a little less on GSS data since I'm running out of uncovered topics, but I will continue to post items the left considers blasphemous. It's not fun otherwise. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-48062181123033329162023-03-03T09:01:00.004-08:002023-03-03T09:01:58.268-08:00Progs more likely to seek revenge than conservatives<p> <span style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.03); color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: inherit;">Progs love to tout what lovers of humankind they are. The General Social Survey asked people if they sometimes try to get even rather than forgive and forget. 20.8% of conservatives answered true, but liberals are 1.7 times more likely to seek revenge (34.5%).</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.03); color: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-variant-ligatures: inherit; font-weight: inherit; white-space: inherit;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggzMEc9XRYUgI2liGdh1fHsIq_8vmgEMHhfSFODhnTK1yA5RnZKs6m1FPvSkrjQcG3cqiOOGtuhHqJDDFoa0T_ZPVHqtdWrYLIz17D2vK0b9HDfNplazxrdlTFWLeiiEpGbq8fUElFXJ1CHwc32Kl9QeO-Ot668sDqfxUiQQqRYTDh9Bpyl3g" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="593" data-original-width="841" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEggzMEc9XRYUgI2liGdh1fHsIq_8vmgEMHhfSFODhnTK1yA5RnZKs6m1FPvSkrjQcG3cqiOOGtuhHqJDDFoa0T_ZPVHqtdWrYLIz17D2vK0b9HDfNplazxrdlTFWLeiiEpGbq8fUElFXJ1CHwc32Kl9QeO-Ot668sDqfxUiQQqRYTDh9Bpyl3g=w400-h283" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-3091407642162303332022-12-27T14:36:00.002-08:002022-12-27T14:36:37.143-08:00Did Ireland used to be dumb? A look at eminent scientists <p>Some researchers have claimed that the average IQ of the Irish used to be really low by West European standards but has recently caught up, and this shows that IQ can be raised by improving social conditions. </p><p>Russell Warne recently conducted an <a href="https://russellwarne.com/2022/12/17/irish-iq-the-massive-rise-that-never-happened/">analysis</a> of 55 samples of 29k Irish examinees, the IQ data collected in various years from 1916 to 2015. The mean was found to be 98.0. As you see in his graph below, there was at most a slight increase in mean IQ over this period. This pattern contradicts the optimistic nurturist view. </p><p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcF2hiRCWsAAQ3xZYYYHho8XrvdFi8vjYZQuv7iBPYZnh9l2ou6ZolG2ETjtQGuRLIAfOtw7Zo_HVjl2qNtpER2ZwNm2qAn1nL6M0k_4t7G8qd8ybGhWXht3yDZ2ZA4LmzcWbYSwMMk6vgovHrTJo28DQJYsz0F-UQd_wr4wsi-mSui3MUYeI" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="504" data-original-width="773" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhcF2hiRCWsAAQ3xZYYYHho8XrvdFi8vjYZQuv7iBPYZnh9l2ou6ZolG2ETjtQGuRLIAfOtw7Zo_HVjl2qNtpER2ZwNm2qAn1nL6M0k_4t7G8qd8ybGhWXht3yDZ2ZA4LmzcWbYSwMMk6vgovHrTJo28DQJYsz0F-UQd_wr4wsi-mSui3MUYeI=w640-h418" width="640" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>A reality-check approach might offer a nice complement to the IQ data. If mean Irish IQ were, say, 85 a century ago, we should not expect Ireland to have produced many eminent scientists. </p><p>I will rely on the inventories of significant scientists, mathematicians, and technologists listed in Charles Murray's <i>Human Accomplishment</i>. I will use Scotland, Denmark, Norway, and Finland as comparisons. They are NW European countries with population sizes roughly similar to that of Ireland, and as far as I know, no one has claimed that those countries used to be low-IQ. </p><p>You can see from the lists below that Scotland smokes the other countries with 57 significant figures. Pound for pound, Scotland is an impressive country. Denmark is a distant second with 14 eminent men, but Ireland is a close third with 13 significant figures. Norway has 8, and poor Finland only has one. Impressive country but not for its past scientists. </p><p>So Ireland falls to the middle of the pack. No reason here to think that the Irish used to be dumb but have only recently improved their intelligence level. </p><p><b><u>Scotland</u> -- 57 Significant Figures</b></p><p><i>Astronomy<br /></i>Thomas Henderson</p><p><i>Biology</i><br />Robert Brown<br />John Haldane<br />John McCleod</p><p><i>Chemistry</i><br />Archibald Couper<br />John Cranston<br />William Cullen<br />James Dewar<br />Alexander Fleck<br />Thomas Graham<br />Charles Macintosh<br />William Ramsay<br />Daniel Rutherford<br />James Swinburne<br />James Waterston<br />James Young</p><p><i>Earth Sciences</i><br />James Ewing<br />James Hall<br />James Hutton<br />Charles Lyell<br />William Maclure<br />Roderick Murchison<br />William Nicol<br />Charles Thomson</p><p><i>Physics</i><br />David Brewster<br />James Maxwell<br />William Thomson<br />Charles Wilson</p><p><i>Math</i><br />James Gregory<br />Colin Maclaurin<br />John Napier<br />James Stirling<br />Joseph Wedderburn</p><p><i>Medicine</i><br />Charles Bell<br />Alexander Fleming<br />John Hunter<br />James Lind<br />Patrick Manson<br />Edward Mellanby<br />John Pringle<br />James Simpson<br />Robert Whytt</p><p><i>Technology</i><br />John Baird<br />Alexander Ball<br />Patrick Bell<br />James Dewar<br />Kirkpatrick Macmillan<br />John McAdams<br />Andrew Meikle<br />William Murdock<br />James Nasmyth<br />William Rankine<br />James Thomson<br />William Thomson<br />Robert Watson-Watt<br />James Watt<br />James Young </p><p><b><u>Denmark</u> -- 14 Significant Figures</b></p><p><i>Astronomy<br /></i>Tycho Brahe<br />John Dryer<br />Ejnar Hertzsprung<br />Ole Romer</p><p><i>Biology</i><br />Peter Dam<br />Johan Fabricius<br />Hans Gram<br />Wilhelm Johannsen</p><p><i>Chemistry<br /></i>Soren Sorensen</p><p><i>Earth Sciences<br />0</i></p><p><i>Physics</i><br />Erasmus Batholin<br />Niels Bohr<br />Hans Orsted</p><p><i>Math<br />0</i></p><p><i>Medicine</i><br />Niels Finsen</p><p><i>Technology</i><br />Valdemar Poulsen</p><p><b><u>Norway</u> -- 8 Significant Figures</b></p><p><i>Astronomy<br />0</i></p><p><i>Biology<br />0</i></p><p><i>Chemistry</i><br />Cato Guldberg</p><p><i>Earth Sciences</i><br />Jakob Bjerknes<br />Vilhelm Bjerknes<br />Peter Waage</p><p><i>Physics<br />0</i></p><p><i>Math</i><br />Niels Abel<br />Marius Lie<br />Caspar Wess</p><p><i>Medicine</i><br />Johannes Fibiger</p><p><i>Technology<br /></i>0<br /><br /></p><p><b><u>Finland</u> -- 1 Significant Figure</b></p><p><i>Astronomy<br />0</i></p><p><i>Biology</i><br /><i>0</i></p><p><i>Chemistry<br />0</i></p><p><i>Earth Sciences</i><br />Johan Gadolin</p><p><i>Physics<br />0</i></p><p><i>Math<br /></i>0</p><p><i>Medicine<br />0</i></p><p><i>Technology<br /></i><i>0<br /></i><br /></p><p><b><u>Ireland</u> -- 13 Significant Figures</b> </p><p><i>Astronomy<br /></i>William Parsons</p><p><i>Biology</i><br />John Tyndall</p><p><i>Chemistry</i><br />Thomas Andrews<br />John Bernal<br />Adair Crawford</p><p><i>Earth Sciences</i><br />Francis Beaufort<br />Edward Sabine</p><p><i>Physics</i><br />George Fitzgerald<br />George Stokes<br />George Stoney<br />Ernest Walton</p><p><i>Math<br />0</i></p><p><i>Medicine<br />0 </i></p><p><i>Technology</i><br />Arthur Kennedy<br />Charles Parsons</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-26718781928744261592022-10-09T13:57:00.001-07:002022-10-09T13:57:44.841-07:00What do GSS data say about the view that many blacks do not value education? <p> </p><p>Some people argue that blacks do not perform academically as well as other groups because they lack a culture that places a high value on education. Is such a view supported by General Social Survey data? In 2021, respondents were asked, "Please show for each of these how important you think it is for getting ahead in life . . . c. Having a good education yourself?" Answers ranged from 'essential' to 'not important at all.' </p><p>The table displayed below shows the distribution of responses for blacks (raceacs = 1) and non-blacks. 46.2% of blacks say education is essential, compared to only 31.8% of others. This contradicts the claim that African Americans do not value getting an education as others do. </p><p>You might respond that blacks have been taught the importance of education, but many only pay lip service to the idea and have not internalized the attitude. If true, this points to the impotence of attempting to improve performance through teaching and stressing certain values. </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwzO1j82p2RMhVoEroNq6ElYJJDHio_a4OjgNuA97us5VaNdVAfTS0gPNdUnRf4pahhzCAzCj2nA_XZLlYxqoVwDYiYvlQn9CIFsCIDoeJbGeArkB0hAYAHnaErVDAFr5PruGAZ52N4VlTb9HPu8e4HguW_xVJF5LVHD4O4AxMNEmu5LSd8s8" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="626" height="379" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhwzO1j82p2RMhVoEroNq6ElYJJDHio_a4OjgNuA97us5VaNdVAfTS0gPNdUnRf4pahhzCAzCj2nA_XZLlYxqoVwDYiYvlQn9CIFsCIDoeJbGeArkB0hAYAHnaErVDAFr5PruGAZ52N4VlTb9HPu8e4HguW_xVJF5LVHD4O4AxMNEmu5LSd8s8=w400-h379" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-52407865294264425722022-08-20T11:46:00.004-07:002022-08-21T12:22:19.644-07:00How much has mean IQ declined in the US? <p> I looked at General Social Survey data to see how much IQ has declined in the US since the early 70s when the GSS was started. I set whites tested in the 70s to a mean of 100, so they are the comparison group. Here's what I found: </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLpR1WeCFD1S-pXEaspBnm0UHYelx5XHzudmwa2hTF0y7qL48QDEUkg_uo59IE4pRSjzMhEI81TVt-yng4WiniXw0zbOCau_gsFzyKzQbhj9_XHVxXhXlXK-bXZSg9txRjb_jqPKeS1PAnBVv9O6GevPZaZmlan3-lLfcUMJUjazuhz1qvVvc" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="471" data-original-width="530" height="356" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjLpR1WeCFD1S-pXEaspBnm0UHYelx5XHzudmwa2hTF0y7qL48QDEUkg_uo59IE4pRSjzMhEI81TVt-yng4WiniXw0zbOCau_gsFzyKzQbhj9_XHVxXhXlXK-bXZSg9txRjb_jqPKeS1PAnBVv9O6GevPZaZmlan3-lLfcUMJUjazuhz1qvVvc=w400-h356" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Mean IQ for the 2010s is 99.6, so compared to 1970s whites, the mean has dropped very little. It didn't drop more since we see a Flynn effect among all racial groups. The negative impact occurs because of the tremendous growth of Hispanics who have a 2010s mean IQ of 94 shown below. (All numbers exclude immigrants since they are likely to do poorly on an English-language IQ test). </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZkprexLtzzQ513byIE2xWVmYV34Qmxtn1igI2EXgJAWmJgABF1leIEesBbbXlRsdYjbnJtiLe3DlFPCeVn6ATqNY5Os387EyW9dWEOEtXocfUFfm5o0u-eCiWd5qVqVrYF19a9AbUPho_eC0uripcQYfTVTQXZv9-OjeBVlSQ8Im0Tc9S43A" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="344" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgZkprexLtzzQ513byIE2xWVmYV34Qmxtn1igI2EXgJAWmJgABF1leIEesBbbXlRsdYjbnJtiLe3DlFPCeVn6ATqNY5Os387EyW9dWEOEtXocfUFfm5o0u-eCiWd5qVqVrYF19a9AbUPho_eC0uripcQYfTVTQXZv9-OjeBVlSQ8Im0Tc9S43A=w350-h400" width="350" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-54137095661097366022022-05-19T13:42:00.000-07:002022-05-19T13:42:46.299-07:00How strongly does religiosity predict fertility? <p>The total fertility rate in the US has fallen to 1.7. That means the average woman will have fewer than two children, not enough to replace the population. Does greater religiosity predict fertility, and if so, how strongly? I organized data on the total fertility rate (TFR)(World Population Review, 2021 data) and the percent of the country thinking religion is important (World Values Survey, various years) for 78 countries. The Spearman rank correlation is .61 (p < .001), which means that religiosity strongly predicts higher fertility. Here is a scatterplot:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj958_PATrWpbtTbXgUWMoUWYwHgRCIxo-GhjDnsar74wiqInbWW-0_-ydZwmivmJUtQMLYr8fJ5D-LgGW09gjUXGNEi-T2T6BidTWK-9QAZDN5OTFcm05KnJHBvM2w575mRn8dOm_OW9lhhE4jzIweCP0i9Xn4X6n5uUumHda7H-QVmfa7-fw" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="625" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEj958_PATrWpbtTbXgUWMoUWYwHgRCIxo-GhjDnsar74wiqInbWW-0_-ydZwmivmJUtQMLYr8fJ5D-LgGW09gjUXGNEi-T2T6BidTWK-9QAZDN5OTFcm05KnJHBvM2w575mRn8dOm_OW9lhhE4jzIweCP0i9Xn4X6n5uUumHda7H-QVmfa7-fw=w400-h337" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Here is the scatterplot with country labels:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxlVnR6kQehY43nLNptYKZaMAstYvV2RxBWcuMmV2Hy3StOjS9w14qRTNrwuKIbVi3v-jL64ZTvnZu8dCIN5yaY1C7nWPmc4NRMBLFqkYBSboNOoinr4nhcxoxe5HQyyjR6gNHsyP3k28p78x4wTZ4-2TpokJQnLOv7VrZpKCXn2nWlY9WCfc" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="622" height="321" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjxlVnR6kQehY43nLNptYKZaMAstYvV2RxBWcuMmV2Hy3StOjS9w14qRTNrwuKIbVi3v-jL64ZTvnZu8dCIN5yaY1C7nWPmc4NRMBLFqkYBSboNOoinr4nhcxoxe5HQyyjR6gNHsyP3k28p78x4wTZ4-2TpokJQnLOv7VrZpKCXn2nWlY9WCfc=w400-h321" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>If we assume that a TRF of at least 2.1--replacement level--is best, then a country evidently needs close to half or more of the population believing that religion is important. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com13tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-84648095586250495252022-05-16T13:13:00.006-07:002022-05-17T10:09:37.759-07:00Are mass shootings on the rise because young men no longer believe in hell? <p>According to <a href="https://www.unz.com/isteve/">Steve Sailer</a>, the mass shootings committed by disciplined, skilled killers are on the rise because fewer young men fear there is a hell waiting for them. Do the data support this? </p><p>The General Social Survey asked respondents, "Do you believe in hell?" I lumped those who answered "definitely yes" and "probably yes" into one group, and the same for the no's. Here are the results for men ages 18-29:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoxqiP5wEgFSYIuhCimi2PnKmJwQP_DqzxzZ6I9Vp7XL_02TG65gvtNcRRyesJqLVoch_08oMypPaINhnua1VaEIOXVrWojxDG0ue7KN6FDeNmc4pZswaoTXoGm8PJdfabLDY0qOTNtKHx2CvrDetPhxOvieKn0ni89kwFFK2sYKgnIudI0BA/s609/hell.PNG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="521" data-original-width="609" height="343" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoxqiP5wEgFSYIuhCimi2PnKmJwQP_DqzxzZ6I9Vp7XL_02TG65gvtNcRRyesJqLVoch_08oMypPaINhnua1VaEIOXVrWojxDG0ue7KN6FDeNmc4pZswaoTXoGm8PJdfabLDY0qOTNtKHx2CvrDetPhxOvieKn0ni89kwFFK2sYKgnIudI0BA/w400-h343/hell.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The percent not believing in hell bounces around a little 1991-2008, but it jumps up to 47% in 2018. </p><p>Here is a <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2019.12.12.19014738v1.full.pdf">graph</a> of the trend in high body count mass shootings in America--the type usually committed by the kind of men Steve is talking about:</p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTQT52N9j4_bs4N4h02n59u_D062Kxv1Ya295zDh6bTYkt3lwgsNkmp-YuUPd4UjcQYhbutUkBwXrzrPkE-yEVQAzOfbDDOA9KSZRfIhH222KX8JlLivaPvMih7fyBMvLlCtJtgKgWObTbpG0Ee8nSzr7UMGcidUcePxo0Zv2F8Q1ZIb6inZI/s329/shootings.PNG" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="278" data-original-width="329" height="338" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTQT52N9j4_bs4N4h02n59u_D062Kxv1Ya295zDh6bTYkt3lwgsNkmp-YuUPd4UjcQYhbutUkBwXrzrPkE-yEVQAzOfbDDOA9KSZRfIhH222KX8JlLivaPvMih7fyBMvLlCtJtgKgWObTbpG0Ee8nSzr7UMGcidUcePxo0Zv2F8Q1ZIb6inZI/w400-h338/shootings.PNG" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The rate accelerates around the same time we see a jump in skepticism about hell. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-22844331498885869532022-05-10T22:10:00.005-07:002022-05-10T22:17:51.829-07:00Have liberals veered left on abortion? <p>Political parties have gotten more polarized in the past few years. Is this true for abortion attitudes, too? Using General Social Survey (GSS) data, I created the following graphs:</p><p><br />Liberal Women</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgHtP2ITjQsuqqMQxQ1IrKLQPTZ-JOJB-59RQZBQnKm9djYF7dfiFJL_OLM2z8A_3vshqMwT6fLgRTJqbTiOy-wVww-SBw08gIiDxZGP22OZ24f5QWNXOLNgDNS0w4Q54l1ntGp6HR0nx1D3KFy1oqBmnWbThVgBZZKhIAobV_v8iPGkjO5njU" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="1015" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgHtP2ITjQsuqqMQxQ1IrKLQPTZ-JOJB-59RQZBQnKm9djYF7dfiFJL_OLM2z8A_3vshqMwT6fLgRTJqbTiOy-wVww-SBw08gIiDxZGP22OZ24f5QWNXOLNgDNS0w4Q54l1ntGp6HR0nx1D3KFy1oqBmnWbThVgBZZKhIAobV_v8iPGkjO5njU=w640-h262" width="640" /></a></div><br />In 2006, 60% of self-described liberal women favored abortion for any reason. That number grew and jumped from 2018 to 2021. It's now 88%. <p></p><p><br /></p><p>Liberal Men</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJQnCLNI6YSwJr8ooGNHPME8YTdaaAYnubBSa3Umxf0p_j2K39cZjKVv4J9aHdpBo1PX7Gg3D5RrsOcSEJr8_Ifpj0ObHDfOGeNBx72pIuw9WihohFldzKO-fFW8XgOxrxqKy_T9Vw_tDJFErtid_n75A0CPmbErflsQ6VI4X77M6NqeIlx6c" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="413" data-original-width="1013" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhJQnCLNI6YSwJr8ooGNHPME8YTdaaAYnubBSa3Umxf0p_j2K39cZjKVv4J9aHdpBo1PX7Gg3D5RrsOcSEJr8_Ifpj0ObHDfOGeNBx72pIuw9WihohFldzKO-fFW8XgOxrxqKy_T9Vw_tDJFErtid_n75A0CPmbErflsQ6VI4X77M6NqeIlx6c=w640-h260" width="640" /></a></div><br />We see the same trend for liberal men. By 2021, the percent in favor was 79%. Currently, few liberals have a problem with unrestricted abortion. <p></p><p><br />Moderate Women</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXfb6dp1tajDX_1VVmfA-Kw1Q5uueSDBglWaj9FEOwepqIRWjOc4JOzUPdNIjGID46Vpiid9gDByzmJa7XtFQg7p0GXrPozWyo_so0_gy4rHvU4tbX49gp_JNZJtDzohhFkaAKD8vAxN48eOQvjN_DNsEP8be3d89hBcKM-yWJj75XBxzqQCQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="1007" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiXfb6dp1tajDX_1VVmfA-Kw1Q5uueSDBglWaj9FEOwepqIRWjOc4JOzUPdNIjGID46Vpiid9gDByzmJa7XtFQg7p0GXrPozWyo_so0_gy4rHvU4tbX49gp_JNZJtDzohhFkaAKD8vAxN48eOQvjN_DNsEP8be3d89hBcKM-yWJj75XBxzqQCQ=w640-h260" width="640" /></a></div><br />It's trended up for moderate women as well. They are now at 54%<p></p><p><br /></p><p>Moderate Men</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbMK5tH7UmQxSxjBQqxq2ZkXTnO93ajzJJ_FjTSuBRDLP6p-yaKEEr-8ootUGZD2vs1m_ebRY91wp09IVVHQ4Ab4CMDarrdLEBBnctqNq1vMq5HKQmtbai58aXzg8lSZUk8vBMQ7majRXEm1ZLxe3pnKYIwKY8qwVfBW3neDczLs76QXQem_0" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="1010" height="254" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhbMK5tH7UmQxSxjBQqxq2ZkXTnO93ajzJJ_FjTSuBRDLP6p-yaKEEr-8ootUGZD2vs1m_ebRY91wp09IVVHQ4Ab4CMDarrdLEBBnctqNq1vMq5HKQmtbai58aXzg8lSZUk8vBMQ7majRXEm1ZLxe3pnKYIwKY8qwVfBW3neDczLs76QXQem_0=w640-h254" width="640" /></a></div><br />Moderate men are now at 57% approval. <p></p><p><br /></p><p>Conservative Women</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgJqvfQuKRb2RmM6jRGQjsxJ5zISmJMCDjPqbxZHvrulCcWNsRDtO7y1qwJ63HouRRh4yqjDPmXFWIezKvJLOTvwyne_7Uwk6KPE-cKvB4PG9oGSMRD67Ttumk9wwQKvabs9YC-kCyj38IMEtQj9st7Vx7n2G9Kkd7I3pD_PVfB45ycl8IQTSY" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="1008" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgJqvfQuKRb2RmM6jRGQjsxJ5zISmJMCDjPqbxZHvrulCcWNsRDtO7y1qwJ63HouRRh4yqjDPmXFWIezKvJLOTvwyne_7Uwk6KPE-cKvB4PG9oGSMRD67Ttumk9wwQKvabs9YC-kCyj38IMEtQj9st7Vx7n2G9Kkd7I3pD_PVfB45ycl8IQTSY=w640-h260" width="640" /></a></div><p>By contrast, attitudes among conservative women have stayed fairly steady, the current level of approval is at 27%.</p><p><br /></p><p>Conservative Men</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNVP2vEgWQvw9ovuP8r3j3C9LFpUIIgOFzU89c8iXa_Q_S9cJw5ORzpvGFouMdT1g0hlSTUcBGNxjMR-Mncj82Jrm3PldePx2iYJP7yq7iofwwZHZkmyZnC92kJ53sluy29dNHYkeDrIuxri2uxpxnONztWmwiQ1b8mbPW9guju-LIW86lKFI" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="1007" height="260" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNVP2vEgWQvw9ovuP8r3j3C9LFpUIIgOFzU89c8iXa_Q_S9cJw5ORzpvGFouMdT1g0hlSTUcBGNxjMR-Mncj82Jrm3PldePx2iYJP7yq7iofwwZHZkmyZnC92kJ53sluy29dNHYkeDrIuxri2uxpxnONztWmwiQ1b8mbPW9guju-LIW86lKFI=w640-h260" width="640" /></a></div><br />The story is similar for conservative men. They are currently at 34% approval. Overall, conservatives have not changed much, whereas liberals have veered left on the issue, especially in the last few years. There is more consensus among liberals than conservatives. <p></p><p><br /></p><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-63661403502533267832021-12-23T19:34:00.001-08:002021-12-23T19:40:19.354-08:00Is "Latino Lover" a thing?<p>I was watching "Being the Ricardos" last night, and one of the film's themes was Desi Arnaz' infidelities. It made me wonder if there is any truth to the stereotype of the Latin lover. </p><p>The General Social Survey asked married men if they had ever cheated on their spouse. Here are the percentages (N = 4,243):</p><p><b>Percent of married men who have cheated</b></p><p>Non-Hispanic black <span style="color: red;">25.2</span><br />Black Hispanic <span style="color: red;">20.0</span><br />White Hispanic <span style="color: red;">16.9</span><br />Non-Hispanic white <span style="color: red;">16.3</span><br />Hispanic--other race <span style="color: red;">15.0</span><br />Non-Hispanic--other race <span style="color: red;">13.9</span></p><p>I calculated percentages for each race because I know it is relevant for infidelity. There is evidence here that black men cheat more than other groups, but rates are not high for Hispanics.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-60698714565021242262021-12-14T13:27:00.002-08:002021-12-14T14:18:59.029-08:00The 2021 General Social Survey: How many transgenders?<p> The 2021 General Social Survey is out. Respondents were asked their gender. Here are the results:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><img alt="" data-original-height="346" data-original-width="317" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSGkVO5rtbLMt3-3wtH7Q1nIE94iMhCYlT7G-j3ACcue0ZHU_mhkxh-5D94SuTbYN0clE0lrbgQ2U4P-Dav1z5MMrCTDDvdD0qK6ULWZR5JhkRBWR-Iz1DPRRhIFqBbFHzhaiDZA/w367-h400/image.png" width="367" /></a></span></div><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /><br /></a><p></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><a href="http://action.uujmca.org/app/document/24648669" target="_blank"><br /></a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>I am interested in the transgender issue, but let's take notice of an important GSS fact: It is heavily skewed toward women, so you need to take this into account when looking at results that differ by gender. For example, in 2021 8.4% of men do not believe in God, but only 5.1% of women believe the same way, so an excess of women in the sample will skew the results for the total sample. </p><p>But let's focus on transgenders: They are 0.3% of the sample. This is 3 per 1,000, folks, not radically different from what I was taught in college many years ago. The figure is also similar to that of the California <a href="https://inductivist.blogspot.com/search/label/Transgenderism" target="_blank">study</a> that reported .35% of the state is transgender. </p><p>You do see 0.4% who don't fit into the other boxes, so there is a small percentage of confused people out there. </p><p>The GSS is a sample of adults (18+), so the apparent growth in transgenderism is occurring among teens. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-47781633078297614782021-08-02T12:02:00.002-07:002021-08-02T12:02:22.511-07:00What percent of Americans under 40 are Christians?<p> A follower on Twitter indicated that he is not Christian and wondered what percent of Americans under 40 are. Well, you know I'm a sucker for that kind of question. The General Social Survey asked people about their religious affiliation in 2018--the latest published data. Here are the results: </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7E2EmPaRsyvguP4VfuLjW0KFfK-1Brg0dSADai-_zqPAIsuMASva93HnkcmqJ8eN1qAUvspDvuGDuNJH69my0KdAlmT1W7zUgJhVhTAcR6cpUTFZYU3aSNN1cxfm0zxuVFUpqDA/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="537" data-original-width="334" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7E2EmPaRsyvguP4VfuLjW0KFfK-1Brg0dSADai-_zqPAIsuMASva93HnkcmqJ8eN1qAUvspDvuGDuNJH69my0KdAlmT1W7zUgJhVhTAcR6cpUTFZYU3aSNN1cxfm0zxuVFUpqDA/w248-h400/image.png" width="248" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>If we add up the numbers for Christians, we get 59%, and it's probably closer to 60% since I did not include "Other", which, for example, probably includes quite a few Mormons, who consider themselves Christians and restorationists, not Protestants. If we we create a table with adults 40 and over we get this:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6ri38HcHb1iYGbZLqqo-HFScU740AnJqO6VZtMJbt-i0sVUCgdFPejsPqTpalYZVkhh3KaCx8qjiJRdXdZ-dEKZDYrsSUlTnzVH3pc8z1CsRaqPC2AY3Fgh2ST3YgDYaBmtncTg/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="497" data-original-width="302" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6ri38HcHb1iYGbZLqqo-HFScU740AnJqO6VZtMJbt-i0sVUCgdFPejsPqTpalYZVkhh3KaCx8qjiJRdXdZ-dEKZDYrsSUlTnzVH3pc8z1CsRaqPC2AY3Fgh2ST3YgDYaBmtncTg/w243-h400/image.png" width="243" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Added up, 78.2% of older Americans are Christians, so the percentage among young people is dramatically lower. It's not a coincidence that many young people also favor socialism. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-46241272725787940712021-06-10T10:21:00.003-07:002021-06-10T10:23:21.526-07:00Is skin tone correlated with job prestige? <p>The General Social Survey rated the skin darkness of a sample of black Americans, ranging from "very dark brown" to "very light brown." Biologically oriented researchers might see the question as a rough measure of the percentage of European ancestry, while sociologists would see it as a measure of discrimination--lighter-skinned blacks getting better treatment. Respondents were also given a job prestige score that ranges from 16 to 80--16 is a shoeshine and 80 is a physician. Here are the job prestige means listed by skin tone:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9f_AQXvdmY1ggyIiHvlo72esrRsZZq6Ns-D2D5B5fQLDseLBs1HFu6sEZmqrmXvgb9sBRnCCDOyR3vS2s6Di92lSmbl9Uw0evv_Dry6v6E_6z8T6WOEqYLHTkzMRTSgwP64kdHA/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="360" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9f_AQXvdmY1ggyIiHvlo72esrRsZZq6Ns-D2D5B5fQLDseLBs1HFu6sEZmqrmXvgb9sBRnCCDOyR3vS2s6Di92lSmbl9Uw0evv_Dry6v6E_6z8T6WOEqYLHTkzMRTSgwP64kdHA/w240-h400/image.png" width="240" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>You can see that average job prestige tends to rise with lighter skin. The mean for blacks with "very light brown" skin is roughly two-thirds of a standard deviation higher than the mean for "very dark skin" blacks. </p><p>The pattern can be interpreted in at least two ways: 1) genetic--blacks with more European ancestry tend to rise in the status hierarchy much more than African blacks, or 2) sociological--whites discriminate more against darker blacks, and perhaps light-skinned blacks have white (privileged) relatives who gave them advantages. </p><p>For several reasons, I'm inclined toward the genetic explanation. For one, my experience is that when a white person is interacting with a black person, his thought is, "I'm talking with a black person," not, "I'm talking with a light-skinned black person." For another, how do those Nigerian immigrants do so well in the US when their skin tends to be so dark? The sociologist would predict severe discrimination. The biologist would argue that African immigrants are a select group of Africans--above average in IQ and drive--and this overwhelms any bias they might experience. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-91820173030464456952021-05-17T11:27:00.005-07:002021-05-17T11:30:33.357-07:00Do blacks and whites who grow up equally wealthy end up with the same mean IQ? <p>Some people argue that mean IQs for whites and blacks differ because blacks tend to come from poorer families. A black kid raised with resources equal to a white kid will have the same IQ. Is this the case? </p><p>Using data from the General Social Survey, I calculated mean IQ for blacks, whites, and others for several ranges of father's socioeconomic index (SES): 1-2 standard deviations (sd) below average, 1 sd below average to average, average to 1 sd above average, 1-2 sds above average, and over 2 sds. The sample size is 12,016 (immigrants were excluded). Here's a graph that summarizes the results: </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVsvEOGE84a_S0XcmwiiAk26j82IR2GJEHqOQ6chJ6pfI8qc2Czs1mmhaBBwn2RpRG4SB0TLd3k6CZ7YI9dU6m9kXpnxLXXN_m-7XQyt6kGlSUGliXtGBIPILEgtQGV5ofwjJAlQ/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="306" data-original-width="455" height="269" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVsvEOGE84a_S0XcmwiiAk26j82IR2GJEHqOQ6chJ6pfI8qc2Czs1mmhaBBwn2RpRG4SB0TLd3k6CZ7YI9dU6m9kXpnxLXXN_m-7XQyt6kGlSUGliXtGBIPILEgtQGV5ofwjJAlQ/w400-h269/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Blacks and whites raised at the same SES level do not have the same mean IQs. The higher white average ranges from about 7 points among the poorest group to more than 10 points among the wealthiest group. By the way, other non-whites--mostly Hispanics--are closer to blacks than whites. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1465719353477380962021-05-16T18:41:00.001-07:002021-05-16T18:41:30.496-07:00Who is more likely to be murdered by a black offender: a white or an Asian? <p> Wilfred Reilly (@wil_da_beast630) has a discussion going on at Twitter about which race currently faces the most "systemic racism." Some people are assuming that Asians are victimized by blacks more than whites are. Two sources of data are not very helpful here: hate crimes and victimization data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Hate crimes are a tiny drop in the bucket of all violence, and you don't see NCVS tables with Asian victims by race of offender. (Let me know if I've missed them.) Victim data in general indicates that Asians face low levels of victimization, which makes sense because most crime is intra-racial, and Asians have very low rates of criminal offending. </p><p>Perhaps homicide data is the best way to go here. I looked at expanded FBI homicide <a href="https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2017/crime-in-the-u.s.-2017/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-6.xls">data</a> and the Census to calculate rates for being murdered by a black person for two groups: 1) Whites/Hispanics, and 2) Asians/ Native Americans/Pacific Islanders. I'm afraid the FBI lumps people together that way. The rate for group 1 is 2.30 murders per 1 million population. For group 2, it's 1.44 murders per million. According to FBI data, blacks pose more of a threat to whites and Hispanics than Asians plus. </p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-10054898720513132332021-05-03T15:01:00.000-07:002021-05-03T15:01:13.798-07:00Which low IQ groups have low arrest rates? <p>DGo (@Go321) on Twitter wondered which lower IQ groups still manage to be well-behaved as groups. Criminality is a decent measure of behavior, so I looked at General Social Survey data to see which groups with low average IQs also have lower than average arrest rates: </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_OeuGob8Si9cuFI5uXuz4P3snqP-DlcddHmHfbQsqYJjwhP7_eSBi_tPCA4xDKvt8foq7bRMAvp-SC5Gd8yk6eDdEtiXiopyQuv2fgNaiRvqm01l027V4pnqvrP1rc_CxUrlQBw/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="495" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_OeuGob8Si9cuFI5uXuz4P3snqP-DlcddHmHfbQsqYJjwhP7_eSBi_tPCA4xDKvt8foq7bRMAvp-SC5Gd8yk6eDdEtiXiopyQuv2fgNaiRvqm01l027V4pnqvrP1rc_CxUrlQBw/w340-h400/image.png" width="340" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>The percent arrested for the whole country is 12.7%. The groups listed above with an arrest rate lower than that are: Filipinos, West Indians, and Non-Spanish West Indians. And let me add that these three groups have IQ means that are not very low: 96.7, 98.8, and 95.9, respectively. </p><p>Most lower-IQ groups have high arrest rates, as expected.</p><p>UPDATE: After checking, I see that Arabs do not have a low mean IQ: it's 102. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-47304427005089688532021-05-02T13:22:00.002-07:002021-05-02T13:23:24.340-07:00It's a clean sweep: IQ is more predictive of education, income, and job prestige than dad's social class<p> Someone at Twitter, I forget now, wondered if IQ or one's social class was more important for adult success. Well, the General Social Survey can help with this. I threw in basic demographics as controls. </p><p>Here are OLS results for income:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwm2BZSRkfvi7-Iv7W9LdciBPaBqAGnLfRRsfzDpjqoTodo1Aruo7NmoFdylU6AZD69-AgvdC4LsfoSZCcK7hLKD4r85yeMmSh-C90EKN7cQWACrTw64IarZUIkRgly0Z9_YqcmA/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="484" data-original-width="554" height="349" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiwm2BZSRkfvi7-Iv7W9LdciBPaBqAGnLfRRsfzDpjqoTodo1Aruo7NmoFdylU6AZD69-AgvdC4LsfoSZCcK7hLKD4r85yeMmSh-C90EKN7cQWACrTw64IarZUIkRgly0Z9_YqcmA/w400-h349/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Looking at the betas, you can see that IQ is more strongly predictive of income than father's socioeconomic status (PASEI). Notice how race is not statistically significant when IQ is included in the model. </p><p>And job prestige? </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMWDStESDpJkXVNsh7UqtF2_XXhjo9TTU3LBijsQRwTnqyB6tsP13zepYqSrioU14ELyRhYCQ4XZ05QIf0wJp02L5naXObbgSV2gziYb6fv9dT1KU1AfGSAe5hThiskRz5chQYzA/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="421" data-original-width="447" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMWDStESDpJkXVNsh7UqtF2_XXhjo9TTU3LBijsQRwTnqyB6tsP13zepYqSrioU14ELyRhYCQ4XZ05QIf0wJp02L5naXObbgSV2gziYb6fv9dT1KU1AfGSAe5hThiskRz5chQYzA/w400-h376/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>IQ is much more predictive of job prestige than father's PASEI. </p><p>The results for education should be even stronger for IQ:</p><p> <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg38Ptvno2vhPMdpRTqxQtjHfXLv14tzLVSp_1B7K52_CJ_NcE1qY8HZAh4XANY-gSYgqmxN8oPEKixlPVwHSGDzMZAaVcrvvMgs4Jea5vOlxWu7YbPHKvWiWykiPKEa7Igj_VOLQ/" style="clear: left; display: inline; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="398" data-original-width="444" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg38Ptvno2vhPMdpRTqxQtjHfXLv14tzLVSp_1B7K52_CJ_NcE1qY8HZAh4XANY-gSYgqmxN8oPEKixlPVwHSGDzMZAaVcrvvMgs4Jea5vOlxWu7YbPHKvWiWykiPKEa7Igj_VOLQ/w400-h358/image.png" width="400" /></a><br /><br /></p><p>The beta for IQ is much larger than for dad's social class. How far one goes in school depends much more on brains than dad's wallet (or his other influences). </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-12192562711334921552021-04-30T14:37:00.002-07:002021-04-30T14:37:43.620-07:00An updated analysis of the 2020 election: CPS data<p>In December, I posted <a href="https://inductivist.blogspot.com/2020/12/analyzing-current-population-survey.html">data</a> that make me skeptical about the integrity of the 2020 election. This is an update with new data.</p><p>In the December analysis, I reported that 158.4 million voted for US President but based on an estimate derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), only 158.1 million were registered. Impossible. The CPS didn't have current data in December. Now they do, and they report that 168.3 million were registered in November 2020. This stunned me since the CPS estimated only 153.1 million in November 2018, so total registrations increased 15.2 million in only two years, 2018-20. For context, here's the total number registered by year since 1968:</p><p><b>Total number registered to vote (in millions)</b></p><p>1968 86.6</p><p>1972 98.5</p><p>1976 97.8</p><p>1980 105.1</p><p>1984 116.1</p><p>1988 118.6</p><p>1992 126.6</p><p>1996 127.7</p><p>2000 129.5</p><p>2004 142.1</p><p>2008 146.3</p><p>2012 153.2</p><p>2016 157.6</p><p>2018 <i>153.1</i></p><p>2020 <i>168.3 </i> </p><p>The biggest four-year increase was 2000-2004 with 12.6 million additional registrations. Such a big increase makes the 10.7 million 2016-2020 plausible, but it's weird that the total went from 157.6 million in 2016 <i>down</i> to 153.1 million in 2018, then it increased 15.2 million in only <i>two</i> years, a bigger increase than any 4-year increase since 1968! Weird but possible. By the way, the margin of error for the CPS is less than a million. </p><p>168.3 million registered people in November 2020 means 94.1% of registered voters voted for President. Election experts say that 90-95% of registered voter voting is indicative of election fraud. Countries like Australia that <i>mandate</i> voting can't get 94% of registered voters to vote. </p><p>For context, here are the percentage of registered voters who voted going back to 1960:</p><p><b>Percent of registered voters who voted</b></p><p>1960 107.8</p><p>1964 95.1</p><p>1968 89.4</p><p>1972 79.8</p><p>1976 77.7</p><p>1980 76.5</p><p>1984 74.6</p><p>1988 74.5</p><p>1992 71.2</p><p>1996 65.9</p><p>2000 67.5</p><p>2004 70.0</p><p>2008 89.8</p><p>2012 84.3</p><p>2016 86.8</p><p>2020 94.1</p><p>The years 1960 and 1964 look screwy, but the only other year that looks suspicious is 2020. I'm still not convinced that there was not enough funny business to change the election outcome. </p><p>By the way, according to CPS, 154.6 million people said they voted. According to the official count, 3.8 million additional votes were cast. </p>Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.com0