Thursday, February 03, 2011

Whites who don't feel close to blacks are not more likely to vote Republican

Liberals have been claiming for decades that conservative concern about crime is just a euphemism for anti-black sentiment. Whites who vote Republican are not preoccupied with being victims of crime; they are preoccupied with blacks.

The General Social Survey asked respondents how close they feel toward blacks, with answers ranging from  "not at all" (1) to "very warm" (9). They were also asked if the courts are too easy on criminals.

Let's estimate the logistic regression coefficients of these two predictors on voting for Bush in 2004 separately and then in combination:

Logistic regression coefficients (sample size = 1,629, whites only)

Closeness to blacks -.02

Courts too lenient .67*

Closeness to blacks -.02
Courts too lenient .66*

*statistically significant

When analyzed individually, closeness to blacks is unrelated to voting for Bush. The idea that whites who don't like blacks are more likely to vote Republican is simply wrong. Thinking the courts are too soft, by contrast, strongly predicts casting a ballot for Bush. The results don't change when we calculate the net influences of each factor.

So liberals have created the myth the Republicans win because they have tapped into anti-black sentiment. We can only hope that liberals keep congratulating themselves on their goodness, while we keep winning elections on the crime issue. (Of course, it's not the issue it used to be because conservatives have won for the moment--2 million criminals are currently behind bars).   

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

However, about 50% of the 2 million prisoners are black, about 25% are Hispanic, and about 25% are white. Those are the rough proportions. People say anti-crime and anti-criminal. What a coincidence that 50% of the criminals in jail are black. Ho ho ho.

Anonymous said...

People say anti-crime and anti-criminal. What a coincidence that 50% of the criminals in jail are black. Ho ho ho.

Sounds like the fault there lies with the blacks committing a huge amount of crime, rather than it being any sort of "coincidence". Ha ha ha.

Or are you stupid enough to imagine that people are only pretending to be anti-crime as a cover for being anti-black? That's the sort of back-asswards thought process which people on the left are infamous for.

map said...

99% of liberals who complain about white racism make sure that they live in all white neighborhoods and send their kids to all white schools.

Until I see liberals pull a Gerald Levin on their own kids, I will heartily ignore their preening protestations.

TGGP said...

Have you read Mark Kleiman's book "When Brute Force Fails"? If there is any respectable liberal on crime, it's him. AEI has a video with him and James Q. Wilson here.

icr said...

I'm sure the now de facto federalized and militarized US police force (with all its damn SWAT teams) kills more innocent civilians per annum than all the deep South racist sheriffs combined did in the old days of pre-BRA. I get especially pissed off when Radley Balko reports on all the innocent household pets cops exterminate as a matter of SOP.

>The reliance on military-style raids in police work should be greatly reduced. Blue state Maryland is one of the worst offenders.

Nanonymous said...

It's hard to believe that Prof. Mark Kleiman who wrote a book "When Brute Force Fails" is unaware that brute force always succeeds when there is a political will for it to succeed. See violent crime and drug-related crimes in the USSR and PRC. He knows, just can't say it aloud.