Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Projections

This study I linked to in the last post is interesting. Based on trends in fertility, immigration, secularization, conversions, and religious fundamentalism, the authors project that the modal American voter 30 years from now will describe himself as a conservative Democrat. (Of course, the large projected growth in Catholic Hispanics contributes significantly to such a conclusion). The authors also estimate that in the U.S. the total number of Muslims will surpass Jews in a decade or so.   
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3 comments:

  1. Sgt. Joe Friday9:06 AM

    I skimmed the study, and the main points seem to be that Hispanic Catholics and Muslims are gaining in numbers, and that by 2050 America will be a majority non-white country. Well duh. That's what happens when you have large scale, uncontrolled immigration.

    I do find it amusing that they talk about what "American" attitudes are going to be like in 2103. I think the chances are much better that the USA will have imploded by then, at least the USA as we know it today. There has never, ever been a multiethnic, multicultural, multireligious, multilingual democracy - or at least one that worked. Such a state can work for a little while under some kind of authoritarian dictatorship, but not under our system and especially not with racial & gender preferences and a welfare state. All the different ethnic and religious tribes will compete to see who can loot the public treasury to grab the largest share of the spoils, and then that's it: it's all over.

    In a perverse sort of way, I'm glad I'm as old as I am (53). I probably won't be around to see all this happen.

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  2. agnostic12:10 PM

    There was an article in the NYT a few weeks ago about how Catholic priests are being trained once more for exorcism because more of their members are demanding it.

    Skip down to the end of the article, since otherwise this goes against the secularization of the '90s and 2000s, and you find it's mostly due to Hispanic and African immigrants who have strong beliefs in witchcraft and possession.

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  3. Anonymous4:36 PM

    I'd wager practicing Muslims have already overtaken practicing Jews by quite a lot. As for Jewish blood, my own estimate is that it's more likely about 10 million in the US than the normal estimate of 5-6 million, due to a lot of assimilation. That number will take a bit more time to surpass.

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