Wednesday, March 04, 2009
I wanted to see if there was a general pattern of religiosity and assimilation. The General Social Survey asked 202 immigrants how often they attend religious services, and how proud they are of America's history. It's high time I used the proper statistic, so I calculated gamma, which turned out to be .16. So there is a positive association, albeit a small one. On average, religious immigrants have a better attitude about America.
I think I just found an area where Mexican immmigrants look good, or at least seem like a good match with American culture. They are more religious than immigrants in general, more religious than American-born people of Mexican ancestry, and they attend church more often than native-born Americans in general. They are as likely as other immigrants to be proud of America's history, and Mex-Ams born in this country are more likely than the typical American to be proud of the country's past. (Results are not shown 'cuz I got no damn time!)
Sunday, March 01, 2009

It's probably the case that Darwin is my favorite scientist because he was: 1) a genius and a gentleman, and 2) a devoted father of ten kids. We need a moral continuum for men with Travis Henry on one end and Mr. Darwin on the other.
Mean number of siblings
Men
Straight 3.47 (N = 8,106)
Bisexual 4.93 (N = 54)
Gay 3.61 (N = 261)
Women
Straight 3.71 (N = 9,314)
Bisexual 3.93 (N = 61)
Lesbian 3.43 (N = 187)
Gay and especially bisexual men come from larger families. While bisexual women also come from larger families, lesbians come from smaller families. More masculine mothers?
Normally with this kind of survey question, there is concern that traditional folks are underreporting their homosexuality, but here we see that more people from large and presumably more conservative families are admitting homosexual behavior (except for the lesbians).
One puzzle is that all the means seem too high. But keep in mind that this question has been asked since 1972 of people of all ages, so many folks come from families formed several decades ago. Plus, respondents are asked to include stepsiblings and adopted children. I checked and the means are skewed by the top few percent reporting huge family sizes, but even if they are removed, the pattern of the results stays the same.
Friday, February 27, 2009
Hereditarianism and racialism

I wonder if more whites will adopt hardcore racial attitudes as science makes it increasingly obvious that genes matter. Of course, this type of analysis cannot tell us what is causing what. It could easily be: law against marriage <-- racialism --> genes matter. There is no logical necessity that hereditarianism lead to racialism, but I think one could make the case for a historical connection. Many academics believe the two go hand-in-hand and fear the research for this reason.
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Criminality scale
Straight men 1.67 (N = 519)
Gay men and bisexual men 1.84 (N = 39)
Percent in a physical fight in past year
Straight women 7.2 (N = 1,172)
Lesbians and bisexual women 14.4 (N = 28)
The high lesbian rate isn't surprising--I'm reminded of the hooligan dykes in A Confederacy of Dunces--but the higher mean for homosexuals is strange. Crime requires aggressiveness and nerve. We have seen in prior analyses a pattern of dysfunction among homosexuals, bisexuals, and lesbians: their higher rates of early sexual contact, family violence, and drug use. Any explanations?
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Percent born between August and November (bad months)
Straight boys 34.0
Gay and bisexual boys 34.9
Percent born between January and April (good months)
Straight boys 32.0
Gay and bisexual boys 32.7
No differences here, and a lack of empirical support for "gay germ theory." Keep in mind Agnostic's argument in the last set of comments that birth seasonality is simply not a good test of the theory.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Whites are the first cause; the first movers; God, in effect. Blacks were in an idyllic Eden before the white man came and viciously tore them from it, and in the sweat of their faces shall they eat bread.
In the Eden before the white man came, time did not exist. Evil did not exist. Misery did not exist. Whites then came and tore them from Eden, and the world is a fallen place. And it's all because of whites. And whites, unless we do exactly what blacks say, will frustrate every attempt to restore blacks to their Eden.
Gay germ theory and month of birth
You can find a great analysis over at Congenial Times reporting GSS evidence for Cochran's "gay germ theory." According to the theory, homosexuality is caused by infections affecting brain development. The GSS data shows that a disproportionately high number of gay men are born in June. According to the analyst, if an embryo were conceived in September, he would be exposed during the crucial first trimester to the peak flu season, and would then be born in June.The problem with this is that, according to the CDC, the peak month for flu for the past 26 years has been February (see the graph above). The peak conception month should be December since Mom and embryo are exposed to three bad months. Looking over a longer period, November through February would be the worst 4 months. The best four months for conception would probably be April through July since you are exposed to no months with a particular flu problem. Focusing on the month of birth instead of conception, the worst period should be August through November and the best, January through April.
I'm looking at 4-month periods because the GSS has a small number of homosexual respondents, and cell sizes increase as we merge them. We can also boost sample size by combining homosexuals and bisexuals (as Congenial Times did, N = 167).
Percent born between August and November (bad months)
Straight men 33.9
Gay and bisexual men 34.2
Percent born between January and April (good months)
Straight men 32.9
Gay and bisexual men 28.8
Gay and bisexual men are a bit less likely to be conceived during the low-risk months, but do not differ from straights during the flu season peak. The evidence here for the theory is weak.
Saturday, February 21, 2009

Mean crime index
Whites 1.73
Blacks 2.09
SD .67
According to conventional wisdom, the only reason why blacks have higher rates of crime is because many are from the lower class. (Many people where I work assume that criminal justice system bias produces the disparity. The self-report data presented here show these guys are full of it.) The social status of black and white students at the same college is similar, but black criminality is half a standard deviation higher.
To be more specific, look at the graph to see the huge difference on the question of hitting other students in the last year.
Mean alcohol and marijuana use index
Whites 4.43
Blacks 3.33
SD 2.37
By contrast, you can see that white college students drink and smoke pot more than their black counterparts. The difference is a little less than one-half of a standard deviation. The stereotype of the drunk frat boy is confirmed.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Mean weight index
Straight men 2.18 (N = 812)
Gay men 2.26 (N = 38)
Straight women 2.24 (N = 949)
Lesbians 2.12 (N = 16)
Gay men are fatter, and lesbians are skinnier. Assuming this is correct, where would the stereotype come from?
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Should people always obey the law?


The graph shows that Mexican Americans are more likely than any other large ethnic group to say one should always obey the law. I'm not sure that this is the best attitude, but Mex-Ams clearly stand out. Blacks and American Indians (on the right end of the chart) are also above average; it looks like higher IQ groups have less absolutist attitudes.
I checked by cross-tabulating this question with IQ (WORDSUM). Wow, smart people respect the following of one's conscience.I guess my first attempt to find a pro-Mex-Am stat didn't quite work out.
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Democrats and reading the other side

But let's see if there is a difference in willingness to read the other side. GSS respondents were asked if they read political websites they didn't agree with. Their answers are listed above by their 2000 vote for president (N = 302). You can see that Gore and Nader voters are a little bit less likely to say no.
Don't gape. It's my (belated) New Year's resolution to try to find stats that support the other side. It's only fair. You won't see me do it much for liberals because, really, I don't give a damn. But my decision to (try to) find favorable numbers for Latinos and assimilation is serious. I haven't found any yet (haven't looked much) but I will.
Monday, February 16, 2009
The most important proposal Ron ever made: Human Evolution should be a required general education course in every college in the land. I've attended or worked at six different institutions in my life. None of them required this course or something like it. You answer, what about Introduction to Biology. I respond that: 1) many students don't take that course (they take some other lower-division course in science); and 2) focusing on other organisms allows students to pretend it's not about them.
Let me take it a step further and in a direction one might not expect from a conservative: Require Human Evolution in high school. Socrates said an unexamined life is not worth living. You have little self-knowledge if you don't know that you're a naked ape. Repeat it in front of the mirror ten times a day. I am a naked ape! And a damn proud one!
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Percent of men who are gay
Episcopalian 8.1
Jewish 4.5
No religion 4.4
American Lutheran 3.0
Catholic 2.9
Southern Baptist 2.7
United Methodist 2.4
Christian 1.2
Percent of women who are lesbian
Episcopalian 4.2
No religion 4.1
American Lutheran 3.0
United Methodist 1.8
Catholic 1.5
Jewish 1.0
Southern Baptist 1.1
Christian 1.0
I'm guessing that: 1) more liberal churches don't lose as many of their homosexuals; 2) they gain converts; and 3) homosexuals in conservative denominations are less willing to admit their orientation.
Friday, February 13, 2009
Age and accepting evolution

In honor of Darwin's birthday, Gallup conducted a poll and found all sorts of discouraging things, like how only 39% of Americans accept the theory of evolution. I'd rather focus on the positive part that younger people are more likely to believe it than older people. There is an 18 point gap between the youngest and oldest groups.
I can see this in my own family. Despite my best efforts, both parents are skeptical, but all the kids accept it. On the other hand, I get a lot of resistance in the classroom from students. Many students don't deny it's true, but they make yucky faces if you use it to explain human behavior.
IQ and traffic tickets

Based on the answers of 2,009 respondents (GSS data) the graph shows that the chance of ever getting a traffic ticket goes up with IQ (WORDSUM). This sample includes all races, but the pattern for whites alone is the same.
What's going on here? I suppose that folks with really low IQs are less likely drive, but the pattern holds for the right side of the bell curve. Do smarter people have longer commutes? Do they get bored more easily and fail to pay attention? Myself, I have to listen to audio books when I'm on the road, but I'll admit it's distracting.
(I checked and found that age does not explain the pattern.)
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Percent who get news from the Internet daily
Non-Hispanic whites 31.0
Non-Hispanics blacks 18.5
Hispanics 20.7
I checked the correlation between frequency of Internet and paper reading. It's 0.09, which tells us that the two are basically unrelated. One does not predict the other or substitute for the other. The story here is that NAMs--Hispanics as much as blacks--are poorly informed.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Percent who read the newspaper daily
Non-Hispanic whites 40.5
Non-Hispanic blacks 30.0
Hispanics 23.6
People generally think of Hispanics as falling somewhere between whites and blacks on social indicators, but it's not uncommon for me to run across statistics which put Latinos at the bottom.
Monday, February 09, 2009
One currently popular belief is that if children are going to grow up to become well-adjusted adults, both mom and dad must devote every waking moment to their development. The best research tells us that this is simply not true. If kids were randomly assigned another pair of parents, they would turn out pretty much the same. Research also tells us that day care is not bad for children. So, to all you young women contemplating an abortion, it might be harder, but you don't have to kill your child to get ahead. You might have to give up spending as much time with the little guy, but trust me, if you're the ambitious type you'll enjoy your children more if you're not with them all day. Drop the idea that Junior needs you that much.
Another reader comment was that an intelligent, pregnant teen can always have kids later. While this is true, one demography truism is the longer you wait, the fewer the children you have. I looked at GSS data and found that a delay of ten years translates into one fewer kid for women with the highest IQ (WORDSUM) scores.
I'm not concerned about an overall lack of kids: I'm worried that we're having too many unintelligent kids and not enough smart ones. At the same time, it makes sense for a society to put its female talent to use. While there is tension there, challenging the notion that kids need mom 24/7 can help us achieve both goals.
Sunday, February 08, 2009
Percent aborting (N = 87)
A or B in Math 40.5
C or worse in Math 37.8
A or B in Science 41.7
C or worse in Science 23.1
The chance of getting an abortion was not much different between good and bad math students, but the gap is large in science. The smarties are killing off their smarty kids.
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Skin color and IQ

I've copied the correlation table and the results from a 2008 study in Personality and Individual Differences (Templer, Donald. 45, 440-444). From the author's conclusion: The finding that skin color shows substantial correlations with life expectancy, birth rate, and infant mortality confirms the importance of this variable, as originally identified by Templer and Arikawa (2006). It merits further research given the suggestion made by Jensen (2006) that pleiotropy(genes having more than one effect) may underlie both IQ and skin color. Skin color and IQ have been found to be correlated in several studies of people of mixed-race ancestry Jensen, 1998; Rushton, 2008; Rushton & Jensen,2005).
The nature of a latent common factor such as the r–K dimension requires inference and interpretation. Life history theory provides a central organizing theoretical principle for generating specific predictions as to which traits should be correlated and it suggests physiological processes such as brain functioning that provide a substrate (Jensen, 1998; Rushton, 2004). This latter approach was adopted by Figueredo et al. (2006) who proposed an integration that traced the development of a life history from genes to brain to the various associated components of the reproductive strategy. They explored the psychometrics and behavioral genetics of the K factor, and specific areas of the human brain, including the frontal lobes, amygdala, and hippocampus. They then applied life history theory to predict patterns of development within the brain that are either paedomorphic (i.e., development begins later, proceeds at a slower rate, and has an earlier cessation) or peramorphic (i.e., development begins early, proceeds at a faster rate, and has a later cessation). The theory of r–K reproductive strategies may eventually provide an evolutionary understanding of many seemingly disparate results in personality research.
Friday, February 06, 2009
Assimilation is not working now
English/Welsh ancestry (N = 5,022)
Mexican ancestry (N = 1,165)According to the bottom graph, those of Mexican ancestry were improving into the 90s, but the trend has reversed in this decade. Now, 40% are high school dropouts and only 10% get a bachelors or more.
Assimilation is not working now. Immigration from Mexico must come to a dead halt and should not be started up again until residents of Mexican background at least resemble typical Americans. If that never happens, so be it.
Wednesday, February 04, 2009
Bill O'Reilly is at times a bit annoying, but he is on fire since the Times suggested that folks like him and the writers at VDARE are white supremacists. They've gotten his Irish up, and unlike so many men these days, he's not going to lick boots and shut up about illegal immigration.
He is exactly right that the NYT writes this kind of trash in order to make it easier for the Left to turn America into a one-party country. Reilly is a good example for all the women with penises. When someone calls you a racist, don't apologize and volunteer for sensitivity training. Fight back.
This is a prime opportunity for immigration restrictionists. Times are getting tough. Jobs are disappearing at half a million a month. The limited numbers of jobs we have should go to Americans. We need to open up more spots by sending the illegals packing. We can't afford to have all those wages sent to relatives in Mexico. The generosity must end. Americans first. The Open Borders Crowd doesn't give a damn about ordinary Americans, but we do.
Democrats love to tax the crap out of you, and skip on paying their share

Timothy Geithner, and now Nancy Killefer and Tom Daschle. All tax cheats. It’s funny how these Democrats are happy to spend other taxpayers’ money on social programs, but not so eager to actually pay taxes themselves.
Amen. I wish religious people said amen repeatedly so I could do it now. Let me add Al Franken--who has also been accused of failing to pay taxes. (Let's not forget Bill Richardson's shenanigans too).
Tuesday, February 03, 2009
According to The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, 7.0% of white adolescent boys say that they have been romantically attracted to another boy. The corresponding number for blacks is 8.2% and 9.0% for Hispanics (N = 3,101). Interesting how the ranking is the same for the two surveys.
Monday, February 02, 2009
Percent who have had sex
Taught about pregnancy in school 41.0
Not taught 33.7
Percent who used protection the first time
Taught about pregnancy in school 67.4
Not taught 57.9
Percent who have had sex and did it unprotected the first time
Taught about pregnancy in school 13.4
Not taught 14.2
Looking at the top numbers, those taught about pregnancy in school were more likely to have sex. They were also more likely to use protection the first time. The two patterns basically offset each other: the bottom numbers show us that the percent of kids who have had sex and did it with no birth control is roughly the same for the two groups.
Sunday, February 01, 2009
Our saintly editors mock Marcus Epstein for writing that moderate diversity is good if it brings desirable traditions to the country. So I guess they prefer undesirable traditions? It seems that way. Our cultural elites appear to celebrate the massive movement of illiterates into the country. The more, the better. If I wanted peasants as a political constituency to control and exploit, and if I wanted house servants too dumb to argue with me, I might call immigration restrictionists bad names, too.
The 2001-2003 American Community Survey asked almost 2.4 million people about their birthplace and their educational level. Respondents reported dozens of countries, so let's keep things simple and limit it to the ten most educated groups and the ten least. (Don't ask me who some of these whites are).
Top Ten
Kuwait--nonwhite 13.8
Tanzania--white 13.6
Southwest Asians 13.5
Taiwan--nonwhite 13.4
Malaysia--white 13.4
Cameroon 13.4
Kenya--white 13.4
India--white 13.3
Zimbabwe--nonwhite 13.3
South Africa--white 13.2
Botton Ten
Guatemala--nonwhite 8.03
Laos--white 8.02
El Salvador--white 8.01
Cambodia--white 8.00
Cambodia--nonwhite 7.91
El Salvador--nonwhite 7.79
Azores 7.73
Laos--nonwhite 7.57
Mexico--white 7.49
Mexico--nonwhite 7.14
I'm shocked, shocked that Mexico is on the very bottom of a VERY long list. "7" means the respondents went no further than tenth grade. "13" is for those who completed an associates degree. The New York Times loses sleep over America's educational ills, but welcomes a limitless supply of illiterate, high school dropouts from the south, and libels concerned citizens like Epstein.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Friday, January 30, 2009
Percent sexual harassed in past 12 months
Surveyed in 2000 4.8
In 2006 3.2
Female 5.8
Male 2.1
Straight woman 6.7
Straight man 2.2
Gay man 2.1
Lesbian 2.3
Single 6.6
Married 2.0
Separated 5.6
Divorced 5.5
Widowed 2.7
White 4.3
Black 4.5
Other 1.0
Age 20-24 7.2
25-29 6.8
30-34 6.2
35-39 3.3
40-44 3.7
45-49 3.1
50-54 2.4
55-59 2.3
60 plus 1.2
Italian 7.6
Irish 6.2
Scottish 6.4
French 5.6
Amerindian 5.0
English/Welsh 3.7
German 2.7
Polish 2.6
Norwegian 2.0
Mexican 1.6
Protestant 3.8
Catholic 3.9
Jewish 0.0
No religion 4.5
Less than high school 6.3
High school 3.5
Some college 4.6
College grad 4.8
Grad school 2.8
Working full-time 4.0
Part-time 3.4
Temp. not working 8.5
Low prestige job 5.7
Middle 3.4
High 4.0
Voted in 2000 for Bush 2.6
Gore 5.0
Nader 10.7
Has cheated on spouse 5.8
Has not 2.5
It always wrong to cheat 3.3
Almost always wrong 2.6
Sometimes wrong 5.3
Not wrong at all 5.7
Goes to bar almost daily 12.5
Several times a week 6.6
Never 2.7
Very happy 3.0
Pretty happy 3.5
Not to happy 5.7
There is a lot here. Let me only make a comment or two--you're input is appreciated. The number seems to be down a bit since 2000. I'd like to think the hysteria is subsiding, but the truth is probably that men have become even more neutered in the workplace. Myself, I never even compliment a woman on how she looks.
Homosexuals are not being harassed at high numbers, although I'm sure that elites assume they are.
For a profile of a harassed person, I'm getting the picture of a young, single, low status woman with a wilder type of lifestyle and a liberal orientation. She attracts attention, some of it unwanted, she probably works in a place with fewer castrated men (lower status men or higher status men in less sensitive fields) and her politics lead her to define ambiguous interactions as harassment.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Well, one usual claim is that individuals from every human population are fully interfertile, completely able to interbreed... Of course, like so many sweeping statements, no one has carefully tested this for all possible combinations.It is true that research has not answered this question, but a recent study tell us that some combinations seem as fertile as same-race couplings. I can't access the full text, but here's some of the abstract:
This study uses 2000 - 2005 American Community Survey data on married (n =272,336) and cohabiting (n = 48,769) couples to compare the fertility of endogamous and exogamous couples. Interracial and interethnic partnering do not affect fertility for cohabiting, Black-White, Mexican-White, and Puerto Rican-White intermarried couples, but it does reduce fertility in Chinese-White and Asian Indian-White intermarriages (Fu, Vincent Kang. Journal of Marriage and Family, Volume 70, Number 3, August 2008 , pp. 783-795(13)).
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Hispanics--percentages (N = 823)
Primarily ethnic 50.5
Equally ethnic and American 31.2
Primarily American 18.2
Asians--percentages (N = 68)
Primarily ethnic 39.7
Equally ethnic and American 44.1
Primarily American 16.2
Fewer than 20% in each group see themselves as I see myself--an American. One-half of Hispanics don't even give their American identity equal weight. I'll cut them some slack because some of these folks are immigrants. On the other hand, this is Houston, a place not known as a multicultural vanguard.
Along with blacks, these two groups are getting large enough and powerful enough that they are on the verge of forcing me, a person who doesn't want to, to feel like he must mirror them and become a white man. It's simply defensive racial consciousness. An individualist patriot surrounded by herds of racialists gets stomped.
If this happens to guys like me, the elites who are behind this multiculturalism and the non-whites who happily embrace it will have no one to blame but themselves. They will have killed the goose that laid the golden egg.
And no, folks like me won't become barbarians; we'll simply organize and dominate in an explicit way, in contrast to the unintentional, spontaneous leadership we see today. And we won't feel the slightest twinge of guilt as we do it.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Percent using marijuana
Men (N = 762)
Straight 28.1
Bi 53.2
Gay 40.0
Women (N = 1,446)
Straight 19.6
Bi 54.5
Lesbian 25.0
Percent using other illicit drugs
Men (N = 742)
Straight 10.5
Bi 35.7
Gay 31.6
Women (N = 1,446)
Straight 7.2
Bi 21.8
Lesbian 25.0
It is clear that for both categories of drugs, use is much higher for gay men, lesbians, and bisexuals. I assume this is due to gravitating toward non-conformist social circles, but welcome other explanations.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Mean vocab scores for children of fathers who attended grad school (N = 987)
Only child 7.91
One sibling 7.46
Two siblings 7.47
Three siblings 7.34
Four siblings 7.24
Five siblings 7.41
Six siblings 6.83
Seven siblings 7.07
Mean vocab scores for children of mothers who attended grad school (N = 493)
Only child 7.34
One sibling 7.07
Two siblings 7.46
Three siblings 7.43
Four siblings 7.11
Five siblings 6.87
The second list is shorter because not many moms with seven or more kids went to graduate school. The only-children of graduate school fathers seem smarter, but not those with highly educated moms. When families get really large, there seems to be a bit of a drop-off in IQ, but the overall picture is one of high intelligence across all family sizes.
If you want a smart child, the best thing to do--other than choosing a smart partner--is to have a bunch of kids in order to increase your odds. If you want a high average, well you've got the partner part to focus on.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Malkovich--A right-winger?

Politically, Malkovich has described himself as a libertarian, and he is an ardent supporter of the death penalty. When the serial killer John Wayne Gacy was executed in 1994, Malkovich organized a champagne party for himself and his friends. Actor William Hootkins, who worked with Malkovich in BBC Television's Rocket to the Moon, stated, 'In fact, he's so right-wing you have to wonder if he's kidding.'
In a 2002 appearance at the Cambridge Union Society, when asked whom he would most like to "fight to the death," Malkovich replied that he would "rather just shoot" journalist Robert Fisk and British MP George Galloway. Fisk reacted with outrage. When interviewed by The Observer, Malkovich elaborated on his comments: "I hate somebody who is supposed to be a Middle Eastern expert who thinks Jesus was born in Jerusalem. I hate what I consider his vile anti-semitism. This being said, I apologize to both Fisk and Galloway; they seem like good men but if they make such a heinous mistake again, I will not hesitate to murder them brutally by way of the gallows." Malkovich later added: "I'm a Christopher Hitchens fan myself, but no one has thinner skins than journalists, in my experience, and I come from a family of them... They can dish it out but they can't take it. But the reason I don't like the topic, why I don't really say anything about a whiner like Fisk, is it gives them more oxygen."
I wonder if there is a correlation between playing a prick (e.g., Malkovich, Fred Thompson) or a tough guy (e.g., Schwarzenegger, Willis) and having conservative tendencies.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Mean vocabulary test score
Only child 7.11
First of two kids 6.71
First of three kids 6.63
First of four kids 6.09
First of five kids 5.28
All firsts 6.29
Second of two kids 6.82
Second of three kids 6.94
Second of four kids 5.68
Second of five kids 5.87
All seconds 6.47
Third of three kids 6.36
Third of four kids 6.41
Third of five kids 5.14
All thirds 5.91
Fourth of four kids 6.53
Fourth of five kids 5.80
All fourths 6.10
Let me know if you see something else, but the main story here seems to be that smaller family size is correlated with higher IQ. I imagine that much of that is due to smarter parents, but it might also have something to do with resources and time being split among fewer children. There seems to be no intellectual benefit from growing up in a household with lots of people to interact with.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Mean vocabulary score
Only child 7.11
First 6.27
Second 6.47
Third 5.91
Fourth 6.10
Fifth 5.94
Sixth 5.51
The first kid is not the smartest; the second is although the difference is not statistically significant. The first two siblings are, however, significantly smarter than subsequent children.
On average, an only child is almost a half of a standard deviation smarter than a first child. Is this due to smart parents being more likely to have one kid? Let's look at mom and dad's educational level:
Mean father's years of schooling
Only child 10.16
First 11.28
Second 11.22
Third 10.93
Fourth 10.87
Fifth 10.41
Sixth 8.33
Mean mother's years of schooling
Only child 11.53
First 11.32
Second 10.98
Third 10.30
Fourth 9.83
Fifth 9.19
Sixth 8.73
Moms seem a bit smarter but dads look dumber. Sample size for the fathers with one child is only 25, but that's not terrible for a mean. Does all the attention that an only child gets (or even the first couple of kids) pay off?
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women asked college-age men and women about sexual experiences before age 14. I counted up the number of respondents who said they had some kind of sexual contact with relatives. I divided the counts into those who did it because they wanted to and those who did it against their will.
Percent having sexual contact with a relative before age 14 (N = 2,356)
Women
Consensual 7.3
Consensual plus forced 9.5
Men
Consensual 2.1
Consensual plus forced 2.4
Notice how it's consensual most of the time. Why the gender difference? Part of it seems to be the greater number of older as opposed to same-age family partners for girls, but I'm not sure about the rest of it. Perhaps males who are attracted to family are more likely to have multiple partners. Women might be more willing to talk about these experiences, but I doubt it.
Keep in mind that while the survey doesn't specify, I'm sure that some of these cases, perhaps most, are "kissing cousins."
The numbers, I'm sure, would be higher if the survey had asked about experiences after age 13. I remember my buddy in college telling me how he had just done unspeakable things with his first cousin. This, of course, is a broad definition of incest.
Monday, January 19, 2009
A high IQ for a Prez ain't THAT important
We're getting a new Prez tomorrow: let's look at the issue of IQ again. I looked at a research article by Dean Simonton ("Presidential IQ, Openness, Intellectual Brilliance, and Leadership," Political Psychology, 27, 4, 2006). He seems to do a pretty careful job. He uses multiple ratings by multiple experts with multiple methods to estimate the IQs and the leadership performance of 42 Presidents.So, what is the correlation between IQ and greatness? It ranges between .31 and .35, depending on the measure of IQ. If we average the correlations, R-squared is .11, which means that IQ tells 11% of the story. (This is fairly close to Charles Murray's estimate of 16%).
On the one hand, cognitive ability is not a trivial matter. As Steve Sailer wrote, IQ is probably more important than any of the other factors you can identify. On the other hand, 11% is not impressive up against everything else--the other 89%. Plus, the 11% would probably be lower in a multivariate analysis.
You might respond that this doesn't make sense because it is simply impossible that someone with, say, a 95 IQ could perform well at such a demanding job. But that is not what the results imply. They are saying that within the range of IQs that we've seen among presidents, differences in IQ are not that critical. From the lowest estimate of 107.8 (Harding) to the highest of 175.0 (J.Q. Adams), the range is high enough for other factors to become important. (By the way, the high estimate for Harding is 139.9).
Quoting Sailer again, quoting Greg Cochran, "What really matters in a leader is not being smart, but being right. Who was smarter? Warren G. Harding or V.I. Lenin? I'm sure Lenin could have beaten Harding in chess, but I definitely would rather have lived under Harding than Lenin. Harding was kind of a dumb bunny, but his prejudices and instincts were much more reasonable than Lenin's, who was wrong about everything."
In my judgment, Obama is smart as hell. So what. He's wrong.
While we're at it, the study puts G.W. Bush's IQ somewhere between 111 and 138.5, with a mean of 125. This is close to the 125-130 range given by Sailer.
Also--see any numbers that seem way off in the table? Why is Coolidge about the same as W. and Harding?
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Audrey Tautou!

Now we just have to figure out how the Man gave it to them.
I know, I know. Someone is asking why Ron makes a point of publicizing this stuff. Simple--because everyone is hiding it. If these facts were well-known and nobody cared, neither would I.
Friday, January 16, 2009
Andrew Wyeth, R.I.P.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
I found rates of within- and cross-race aggravated assaults and homicides for 2006 and looked to see if assaults turn into murders more frequently if the attacks are cross-race. Here are the ratios of aggravated assaults to homicides for different combinations:
Ratio of aggravated assaults to homicides
White-on-white 172.0
Black-on-black 55.1
White-on-black 148.5
Black-on-white 108.7
Just to make sure you're interpreting those numbers right, using the first one, read it as, "For whites attacking whites, you'll have 172 aggravated assaults for every murder." So the lower the number, the more likely someone ends up dead.
So, you can see that black-on-black violence is the deadliest; white-on-white the least so. The second deadliest is black on white, so the chance of death is highest when the perpetrator is black.
Whites are somewhat more likely to kill a black victim than a white one, so this is consistent with the hypothesis, but a black attacker is much more likely to finish off the victim if he is also black--a non-supportive finding.
I should mention the important fact that a great deal of serious violence is mutual combat. The story here seems to be that black participants in violence--whether they end up the victim or the aggressor--are more intensely violent than whites. Have two whites go at it, and you get few deaths. Insert a black as the victim or especially the offender, you get more deaths. Insert two blacks, and the chance of murder jumps even higher.
Does this seem right, or are there other ideas?
Jews are an example of this. There are even well-known expressions like, "Two Jews, three opinions," and, "Jews are just like everyone else, only more so."
Well, it is better to take an empirical approach to the matter, because it turns out that on some questions, Jews aren't that diverse, nor are they like the average.
Here are the results (GSS data):
Percent in favor of abortion for any reason
Jews 77.8
Extreme liberals 62.0
Percent who agree that a person should get a police permit to own a gun
Jews 93.2
Extreme liberals 81.2
Percent who agree that the U.S. should take an active part in the world
Jews 85.9
All Americans 67.2
Percent who really like Israel
Jews 90.4
All Americans 34.0
Percent who agree that immigrants improve America by bringing new ideas and culture
Jews 90.6
All Americans 57.0
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Trends in church attendance

If the same trend continues, in another 35 years over 30% of Americans will be unchurched.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Government workers are not liberal
N = 11, 827I assumed that government workers lean left. The GSS disagrees with me. The top chart shows that the political orientation between government and private employees differs little. Well, maybe public employees are not liberal but vote for Democrats nevertheless. You can see that in the middle graph that, once again, the difference is slight.
As a side note, look at how the percent of workers employed by the government has not grown much in the past two decades. I thought it had.
Friday, January 09, 2009
It's now the norm for liberals to be extremists on abortion
LiberalsThese graphs show trends in favoring abortion for any reason since 1977 (GSS data). Liberals and extreme liberals were combined in the the top chart, and it shows that this radical position has increasingly become a part of a liberal orientation. Back in the 70s liberals were split on the issue. It's the norm now to be an extremist.
The bottom graph combines conservatives and extreme conservatives. For them, licentious abortion has always been a minority view. There has been a decrease, but it's not as noticeable.
Thursday, January 08, 2009
Pakistan 82.4Albania 16.1
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Monday, January 05, 2009
Sunday, January 04, 2009
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Thursday, January 01, 2009
The General Social Survey asked 1,513 people, "In the last five years, how often have you or a member of your immediate family come across a public official who hinted they wanted, or asked for, a bribe or favour in return for a service?" Answers ranged from "never" (1) to "very often" (5). Here are the means by region:
Corruption mean score
West South Central 1.31
East South Central 1.29
New England 1.26
Mountain 1.23
Middle Atlantic 1.21
USA 1.19
South Atlantic 1.16
Pacific 1.16
East North Central 1.16
West North Central 1.10
SD 0.59
First, 87% of respondents answered "never" (number not shown) which backs up the idea that the U.S. is a low-corruption country.
You can see that the Midwest, especially the western half, has the lowest levels of corruption. States from Texas and Oklahoma to Kentucky and Alabama have the biggest problem, and yes, New Orleans immediately came to mind. The difference between the best and worst regions is a third of a standard deviation.
These numbers match up with this USA Today corruption conviction map to some extent, but the conviction data show the Dakotas to be corrupt.
The state-by-state map, of course, gives a more detailed picture, but I trust survey data more since convictions depend on many factors and thus are a more indirect measure of corrupt behavior.
There's the stereotype of the "old boys network" in the South, but I've heard that a lot of those little Mexican towns in Texas are notoriously corrupt.
Are gun owners mentally ill?
Some anti-gun people think owning a gun is a sign of some kind of mental abnormality. According to General Social Survey data, gun owners ...
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Via a reader at iSteve, it looks like this might be the vocabulary test used by the General Social Survey. (Someone please tell me if I'...
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In the comments in the last post , some readers contended that Jews are not ethnocentric. Using the same question I used in the comments se...
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Here's the second set I promised. A reader suggested that the first set tends to be older, and it is among younger blacks where you see ...








