Saturday, March 26, 2016

Why do white liberals in Red States vote for Bernie?

Why do these predominantly white Red States vote for Bernie in the primaries/caucuses? Is there a polarization that goes on? For example, in my mostly white state, about 60% vote Republican and 40% Democrat. The Republicans tend to be ordinary, religious folks. The Democrats are not religious and tend to be hipsters. I wonder if the progressives prefer the more extreme Democrat candidate because their politics are, in part, a reaction to state domination by conservatives. "I want to be the opposite of those bigoted squares," and Hillary is not a sufficiently extreme contrast. Why else would they vote so differently from their demographically similar neighbors? 

High-decorum Republicans hate Trump

Let me expand on the idea that very religious people tend to dislike Trump.  It's not just religious people. It's what I would call high-decorum folks. There is certain kind of person--or maybe two kinds of people--who place a premium on being associated with high symbols, whether symbols be religious or social.

For the first type, maybe it's more internal. I've met many religious individuals who have high standards and are very proper. I suspect it's a component of conscientiousness, and it's seems like an internally-directed trait.

The other kind of person is more concerned with the opinion of others and is very motivated to associate himself with symbols of high status. If he feels he is being linked to low rent people, he's very uncomfortable.

These traits seem to be part of the story of why some Republicans hate Trump so much while others like him. Sure, ideologies matter, but it looks to me like more is going on. Trump is very distasteful to people who really care about such things. Many ordinary people enjoy what's low and that doesn't get in their way of liking him. I find politics in general to be very ugly and sleazy--a constant con game perfectly made for conmen. I get disgusted at piety and self-righteousness, not sleaze. When people get all exalted with this stuff, my reaction is, what horseshit.


Sunday, March 20, 2016

Irreligious conservatives LOVE Trump




Presidential election analysts have overlooked the role of religiosity among Republicans. I don't mean evangelicalism, I mean religious commitment. Mormons in Idaho did not like Trump, and data indicates they do not like him in Utah. Some might argue that it's some Mormon peculiarity--their doctrine does give a special status to American Indians (and thus Hispanics)--but I suspect that this is part of a larger pattern. I've been around a lot of religious people in my life. They're often very proper.  They don't like Trump because he's vulgar and unprincipled. The irreligious tend to go the other way--at least non-elites. They love a good dirty joke, they love Howard Stern--Trump's buddy--and are comfortable with having situational values.

The table supports my thinking. These are people who are very or moderately conservative but who hardly ever go to church. They LOVE trump.

Friday, March 18, 2016

Trump wins among demographic groups denied by "experts"

How do these pundit frauds get away with it all the time? They constantly claim that Trump cannot win among women, moderates, independents, the young, and Hispanics. I won't address the claim that educated people won't vote for him: Audacious has refuted that repeatedly.

According to the New York Times exit poll of Florida, Trump--going up against Rubio and Kasich squishies--won among women, moderates, independents, and the young. Rubio won among Hispanics, but Trump beat Cruz handily. Among non-Hispanics, Trump destroyed Rubio 49 to 23 percent.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Trump should win AZ



Am I missing something. Conventional wisdom says that no one breaks Trump's way in the last few days. Exist polls from Tuesday by the NYT beg to differ as you can see above.  According to RCP, Trump is up 13 points in AZ with one-third undecided.  If AZ is anything at all like FL, a plurality of late-deciders should go to Trump, and he should win.