Monday, July 18, 2011

Mex-Am fertility is now driving their growth

Here's a good analysis by Pew which shows that even if the U.S. closed its border today, we would still see amazing growth in the Mexican-American population since their age structure is so young, and since they have so many babies--especially immigrant parents. (They don't mention shorter generations, but that is part of the story as well). (Just last night, I took my wife to the ER for a kidney stone and sat next to a Mex-Am mom with six kids. Don't tell me a little Hispanic women has no power.)

The authors project that, based on current trends, Hispanics will be 29 percent of the total population by mid-century. That is more than double the size of any other ethnic group. Add blacks and Jews, and you're--what--about 45 percent of the country. That means that conservatives will have to get the vote of just about every non-Jewish white person to win elections. Given the white proclivity for self-destruction, good luck with that.

2 comments:

Elmer Fudd said...

Talk about what it will take to win elections 40 years from now is a little premature. A lot can happen between now and then.

One thing is for sure, our country will be a very different place, that is, if we still have a country. I think there's an extremely good chance the whole thing will collapse in a heap from financial upheaval, too many stupid people, and our various adversaries - both past and present - sensing that the USA is weak and being unable to resist the temptation to take a poke at Uncle Sam (uh, sorry, that's Tio Samuel) and settle old scores.

ben tillman said...

The authors project that, based on current trends, Hispanics will be 29 percent of the total population by mid-century.

Laughable. They'll be 29% of the population by 2025.