Monday, October 18, 2010

Down to the wire

Am I the only one who is loving the U.S. Senate nailbiter? Yeah, yeah, it might not make a difference whether the Republicans win the Senate or not, but I like a close one nevertheless. I check RealClearPolitics several times a day. I trust Rasmussen surveys more than others, and they typically show more support than other polls for the GOP. For the past couple months, my estimate has ranged from 49 to 51 Republicans. Just this second, Murray v. Rossi went from "Leans Democrat" to "Toss Up" which drops the Dems to an estimated 48 Senators, and raises the "Toss Ups" to six. (Rasmussen has Murray up 3 points.) I get my suspense here since I'm a nerd and don't follow sports.  

4 comments:

mengbomin said...

I'm generally a bigger fan of Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which was this year added to the New York Times. Obviously we'll have to wait for the election to see which sites were most accurate in their processing of polling data to make predictions, but I'm generally more fond of Nate's statistical approach and his presentation in terms of percentages (as opposed to nebulous categories like "toss up" or "leaning X", etc.).

Anonymous said...

In my state, I fear that Boxer will be re-elected. The unions have flooded my mailbox with Boxer and Brown mailers.

Damn, she's been as there for the takin' too. CA is all about tv ads and the one that's killed Fiorina is the one which underscores that as HP head, Fiorina sent lots of jobs overseas.

Fiorina could offset that ad with one of her own that spoke the truth--that a CEO owes shareholders the best bang for their buck. Then, she should point out that millions of Californians, including teachers, firefighters, police, state workers, have shares of HP in their 401ks and 403bs as well as in their pension funds. She should point out that her decisions at HP benefitted them directly.

Then, she should add that a US senator has different responsibilities than a CEO.

I swear, I get so tired of ad men and women who don't know how effective it is to have the candidate face the camera and simply speak the truth instead of trying to spin things.

She did send jobs overseas. People here did lose their jobs under her reign--tell them WHY! They can accept the truth.

Anonymous said...

"I get my suspense here since I'm a nerd and don't follow sports."


We would be better off as a Republic if more people curtailed their enthusiam for following so many sports, and limited themselves to one favorite sport. Politics and Culture are (unfortunately) the game that really matters at this point.

Black Death said...

In terms of legislation, it won't make much difference whether or not the Republicans take the Senate, especially if they capture the House. The way the Senate works allows a substantial minority to block just about anything. And if the GOP has the House, it won't make any difference what the Senate passes, because it will never make it past the House.

The one big difference a Republican majority will make is that the Senate will start a non-stop investigation of corruption and sleaze in the Obama administration. Of course, a Republican House will do the same, but the entertainment value of such activities should not be underestimated. (Now tell me, Mr. Rezko, just exactly what were your ties to Senator Obama?) Stay tuned....