Thursday, October 04, 2007

Does Hispanic immigration help Republicans in unexpected ways? Republican "strategists" tell us that immigration from Latino countries is good since these people, under all their liberal voting, are natural conservatives who embrace hard work and family values. People like me who actually consult the data know better, but what about the idea that a greater Hispanic presence drives whites to the right?

California is a great place to test this hypothesis since the Latino population is high but varied. I examined data from the 2000-2001 California Workforce Survey, where white residents were asked their party affiliation as well as the percentage of their community that is Hispanic. The sample size was 211, so I split the group roughly by forming one group of those who said that the Latino presence was somewhere between 1 and 3 out of 10; the other group was 4 to 10 out of 10. In the low-Hispanic group, 21% of whites said they were Republicans; for the high-Hispanic group, the number was 30%. Not a huge difference, but noteworthy.

It is also surprising, given that wealthy people can most easily select themselves out of high-Hispanic (poor) areas, and since wealthy people are more likely to vote Republican, this should decrease the Republican presence in Hispanic communities.

I would not be surprised at all to see whites grow increasingly race conscious and turning to the Republicans to deliver pro-white policies, as the country diversifies. The recent defeat of immigration amnesty is probably a sign of this.


Anonymous said...


Getting yourself outnumbered may seem like a subtle, post-logic-strategy from some new paradigm of thought.

What it really is is stupidity and contrary to common sense however. Who wins the elections in Los Angelos now? Democrats. Who wins elections in the heavily Puerto Rican/Black Bronx? Democrats. Blood is thicker than water.
Hispanics have an average IQ of around 85, roughly the same as blacks, therefore these people will not be winning the wars for the best jobs available out there without some extra (unfair) set-asides and quotas. Guess which party will step forward to provide that?

The GOP is committing demographic suicide at the behest of the neo-cons, who think they can outsmart common sense.

Ron Guhname said...

Anon: Right. Even if there is something to my analysis, a growing Hispanic presence is going to drive up Democrat numbers (since Latinos vote that way 2 to 1) much faster than any backlash would produce white Republicans.

Gary said...

I forget who it was that said it, but someone observed that it's foolish to think you can turn whites into a minority group, and then act surprised when they start acting like a...minority group.

Rob said...

The same phenomenon happens with blacks. Roughly, the higher percent of the population of a state is black, the more likely whites are to vote Republican.