Trump should win AZ

Am I missing something. Conventional wisdom says that no one breaks Trump's way in the last few days. Exist polls from Tuesday by the NYT beg to differ as you can see above.  According to RCP, Trump is up 13 points in AZ with one-third undecided.  If AZ is anything at all like FL, a plurality of late-deciders should go to Trump, and he should win. 

I want to vote for Mr. NonTrump too but can't find him!

For months, elites have been saying that the non-Trump vote is much larger than the Trump vote.  I'm kind of a bandwagon guy, so I say sign me up. The problem is that I can't seem to find Mr. NonTrump. I watch all the shows, all the debates, all the primary coverage, and I must confess I've never laid eyes on him. Experts are now saying that we will have a contested convention and that NonTrump should win. I agree--he has the majority. So please help me find this candidate that is so popular, but that I never ever seem to run across.

And isn't it such a coincidence that this guy's name is so close to Trump's?  It sounds French and German at the same time. Alsatian, maybe? 

American scum of the earth

This map shows that the areas with the greatest Trump support have the highest rate of white high school dropouts. The typical white reaction to this, I'm sure, is, "Yuck, I don't want to vote for him because stupid people like him."

Of course, when another low IQ population--blacks--love a candidate, then so do many whites. It goes without saying that blacks love Obama, and for reasons that are mystifying, they even love Hillary.  No one ever says, "Yuck, I don't want to vote for Obama because so many stupid people (i.e., blacks) like him."

This suggests that in 2016 the American scum of the earth are humble white folks. They are American untouchables. I recently talked to a white Appalachian who managed to get out of the holler and earn himself a PhD.  (Okay, it was in sociology, so not that big of deal.) He was a Marxist who probably cries himself to sleep every night over the plight of poor black folks while his cousins are addicted to meth.  He told me that he considered his people to be Indian genocidalists. He needs someone to tell him he has been duped by the White Man into thinking that he's no good. That he's trash. That he's a nigger.

Who's crazier--the Left or the Right?

Three incidents struck me this week. On Tuesday I thought, "My students are always telling me about all the psychotropic medications they are on. Sociology majors are a screwed up bunch."  Then today, a student who over the past few weeks confessed a long list of mental health problems claimed that today's Republicans are mentally ill. Another student followed her by saying you can find a "Republican Disorder" in the DSM-V.  Finally, I watched a video clip of protesters at Trump's canceled rally in Chicago today, and it occurred to me that lefties like my students often look like they have psychological issues, or at least use drugs. Maybe it's just my undergraduate education from 20 years ago. I was taught that a dirty and disheveled look is a predictor of mental deterioration.

So, as usual, I turn to the General Social Survey. Participants were asked how many days in the past month were poor mental health days for them. Here are the percentages that reported at least one bad day by political orientation:

Percent with at least one day of bad mental health in past month

Extremely liberal  52.4
Liberal  47.3
Slightly liberal  47.6
Moderate  44.7
Slightly conservative  43.7
Conservative  38.3
Extremely conservative  30.4

Craziness increases with degree of liberalism.  If we look at mean days instead, extreme liberals average 5.88 days per month. For extreme conservatives, it's only 2.44--less than half the liberal number.

Trump is generating turnout similar to Obama in '08

Great graph. The numbers this year are similar to 2008, only with the parties reversed. Like Obama did, Trump is turning out great numbers. (I've seen evidence that Cruz is turning out some of the increase as well.)  The 2012-2016 Republican increase is amazing. And Hillary are Bernie are generating numbers almost as low as McCain and crew in 2008.

Vietnam performs beyond its IQ

Anyone know why Vietnam performs beyond its IQ (which I believe is around 94)?

Cuban invasion?

Strike the beast, and it just makes him stronger

I love this:

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney delivered an impassioned speech last week blasting Donald Trump as a “fraud” who would hand the White House to Hillary Clinton.

But a new poll finds that the 2012 GOP nominee’s attacks might have helped Trump more than hurt him, at least with Republican voters tasked with choosing this year's nominee.

The Morning Consult survey found 31% of registered GOP voters are more likely to vote for Trump given Romney’s speech, while 20% are less likely. Another 43% said it didn’t have an impact either way.

“The poll, which was conducted March 4 through March 6, also finds that only 5% of Trump supporters said they are now less likely to vote for Trump,” the pollster said in a release. “And, of those who voted for Romney in 2012, 30% said they were more likely to vote for Trump, compared to 20% who said less likely.”

Strike the beast, and it just makes him stronger. 

Cruz: Even more conservative than Idaho

Even though Cruz does fine in head-to-heads with Clinton or Trump, it looks like he would do poorly in the general election because he is simply too conservative. This graph shows that even Mississippi and Idaho are not as conservative as he is. He has little cross-over appeal, so when the Dems begin to paint him as an extremist, we're talking a Barry Goldwater-type outcome.

"Everywhere I look, it's Nazis!"

Abe Foxman: "Everywhere I look, it's Nazis!!!!"