Trump should win AZ

Am I missing something. Conventional wisdom says that no one breaks Trump's way in the last few days. Exist polls from Tuesday by the NYT beg to differ as you can see above.  According to RCP, Trump is up 13 points in AZ with one-third undecided.  If AZ is anything at all like FL, a plurality of late-deciders should go to Trump, and he should win. 

I want to vote for Mr. NonTrump too but can't find him!

For months, elites have been saying that the non-Trump vote is much larger than the Trump vote.  I'm kind of a bandwagon guy, so I say sign me up. The problem is that I can't seem to find Mr. NonTrump. I watch all the shows, all the debates, all the primary coverage, and I must confess I've never laid eyes on him. Experts are now saying that we will have a contested convention and that NonTrump should win. I agree--he has the majority. So please help me find this candidate that is so popular, but that I never ever seem to run across.

And isn't it such a coincidence that this guy's name is so close to Trump's?  It sounds French and German at the same time. Alsatian, maybe? 

American scum of the earth

This map shows that the areas with the greatest Trump support have the highest rate of white high school dropouts. The typical white reaction to this, I'm sure, is, "Yuck, I don't want to vote for him because stupid people like him."

Of course, when another low IQ population--blacks--love a candidate, then so do many whites. It goes without saying that blacks love Obama, and for reasons that are mystifying, they even love Hillary.  No one ever says, "Yuck, I don't want to vote for Obama because so many stupid people (i.e., blacks) like him."

This suggests that in 2016 the American scum of the earth are humble white folks. They are American untouchables. I recently talked to a white Appalachian who managed to get out of the holler and earn himself a PhD.  (Okay, it was in sociology, so not that big of deal.) He was a Marxist who probably cries himself to sleep every night over the plight of poor black folks while his cousins are addicted to meth.  He told me that he considered his people to be Indian genocidalists. He needs someone to tell him he has been duped by the White Man into thinking that he's no good. That he's trash. That he's a nigger.

Who's crazier--the Left or the Right?

Three incidents struck me this week. On Tuesday I thought, "My students are always telling me about all the psychotropic medications they are on. Sociology majors are a screwed up bunch."  Then today, a student who over the past few weeks confessed a long list of mental health problems claimed that today's Republicans are mentally ill. Another student followed her by saying you can find a "Republican Disorder" in the DSM-V.  Finally, I watched a video clip of protesters at Trump's canceled rally in Chicago today, and it occurred to me that lefties like my students often look like they have psychological issues, or at least use drugs. Maybe it's just my undergraduate education from 20 years ago. I was taught that a dirty and disheveled look is a predictor of mental deterioration.

So, as usual, I turn to the General Social Survey. Participants were asked how many days in the past month were poor mental health days for them. Here are the percentages that reported at least one bad day by political orientation:

Percent with at least one day of bad mental health in past month

Extremely liberal  52.4
Liberal  47.3
Slightly liberal  47.6
Moderate  44.7
Slightly conservative  43.7
Conservative  38.3
Extremely conservative  30.4

Craziness increases with degree of liberalism.  If we look at mean days instead, extreme liberals average 5.88 days per month. For extreme conservatives, it's only 2.44--less than half the liberal number.

Trump is generating turnout similar to Obama in '08

Great graph. The numbers this year are similar to 2008, only with the parties reversed. Like Obama did, Trump is turning out great numbers. (I've seen evidence that Cruz is turning out some of the increase as well.)  The 2012-2016 Republican increase is amazing. And Hillary are Bernie are generating numbers almost as low as McCain and crew in 2008.

Vietnam performs beyond its IQ

Anyone know why Vietnam performs beyond its IQ (which I believe is around 94)?

Cuban invasion?

Strike the beast, and it just makes him stronger

I love this:

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney delivered an impassioned speech last week blasting Donald Trump as a “fraud” who would hand the White House to Hillary Clinton.

But a new poll finds that the 2012 GOP nominee’s attacks might have helped Trump more than hurt him, at least with Republican voters tasked with choosing this year's nominee.

The Morning Consult survey found 31% of registered GOP voters are more likely to vote for Trump given Romney’s speech, while 20% are less likely. Another 43% said it didn’t have an impact either way.

“The poll, which was conducted March 4 through March 6, also finds that only 5% of Trump supporters said they are now less likely to vote for Trump,” the pollster said in a release. “And, of those who voted for Romney in 2012, 30% said they were more likely to vote for Trump, compared to 20% who said less likely.”

Strike the beast, and it just makes him stronger. 

Cruz: Even more conservative than Idaho

Even though Cruz does fine in head-to-heads with Clinton or Trump, it looks like he would do poorly in the general election because he is simply too conservative. This graph shows that even Mississippi and Idaho are not as conservative as he is. He has little cross-over appeal, so when the Dems begin to paint him as an extremist, we're talking a Barry Goldwater-type outcome.

"Everywhere I look, it's Nazis!"

Abe Foxman: "Everywhere I look, it's Nazis!!!!"

Does hand size predict penis length?

Question of the day: Is penis length correlated with hand size?  The truth is that I don't know, but I would guess it is.  If I'm not mistaken, some of the same genes that control limb growth also influence genitalia growth. The 2D:4D finger ratio is not really relevant because it measures the relative size of fingers, and is of questionable validity. 

Lee Ellis published a fascinating paper which lists traits that are positively associated with penis length: masculine mannerisms, masculine body build, physical strength, strength of sex drive, low-deep voice, upper body strength, lower body strength, and amount of body hair. The argument is that all these traits are influenced by testosterone. The main weakness of the study is that the data are self-reported. Rating your own penis is like asking students to grade themselves. 

I can't recall the paper, but I do remember reading about a positive correlation between height and penis length as well. Again, the idea was testosterone.

"Make her ugly, dammit!"

The family of Nina Simone (left) is having a fit that Zoe Zaldana (right) was cast to play the singer in a biopic.

Simone's dark complexion and traditionally African features were central to her identity and concept of black beauty, so casting someone with Saldana's more European appearance is galling, said Miriam J. Petty, an assistant professor in the radio-television-film department at Northwestern University.

"It's disrespectful and demonstrates the depth of the ignorance of the person making the film of the very subject of the film," she said.

The Simone estate tweeted Wednesday: "Hopefully people begin to understand this is painful. Gut-wrenching, heartbreaking, nauseating, soul-crushing."

Why would you want to choose Nina Simone as a representative of having a classical African look?  These Afrocentrists seem to be saying that "black is ugly." The moviemakers are trying to help. They want to avoid the embarrassment of making a movie that no one watches because of an homely lead.

Trump's Likeability

One overlooked factor in Trump's success, I think, is likeability. The authors of Freakanomics stressed the key importance of this trait in a candidate. According to the research they cited, likeability is more important than money, if you can believe it. Donald's cockiness, vulgarity, etc., might be off-putting to some, but I would argue that really competitive candidates have a quality that voters sense and like. It's intuitive. Bill Clinton obviously has it. Obama's is different: it's Black Cool. It's comes in different flavors. Even George W. Bush has something. People like gregariousness, confidence, naturalness--they like people people. Trump is clearly an alpha dog, and he likes people--at least his friends. Whatever the precise trait it, it is part of his success, and it will help him in the general. Ted Cruz sure as hell doesn't have it. 

Republican turnout way up

Nice graph showing how turnout is way up for Republicans (red) and down for Democrats (blue). Thank you, Mr. Trump.

UPDATE:  According to NBC News, 8.3 million Republicans voted yesterday compared to 5 million on Super Tuesday in 2012. That's a 66% increase. Much of the enormous enthusiasm has been generated by Donald Trump, so logically the Republican Establishment has decided to destroy him. All those new voters are the wrong type: they are white and nativist. Republican elites are only interested in winning over imaginary brown people. You know, the folks who actually count. Big Republicans are beautiful losers, as Sam Francis described them years ago.