Thursday, July 30, 2009

American IQ in 2050: In terms of IQ, how will the United States look in 2050? I got population projections from the Census, then made simple assumptions about the mean IQs of racial groups: Asians 105, whites 100, Hispanics and Amerindians 90, and blacks 85. The mean IQ for 2050 is projected to be 95.5.

To get some context, which counties have IQs in the same range? Vietnam, Uruguay, Slovenia, Israel, Portugal, and Romania. Nice countries, but hardly world leaders.

UPDATE: One Standard Deviation has calculated a 2050 estimate as well, and puts the IQ mean at 96.2.


Anonymous said...

One problem with your analysis is you assume a constant IQ for each race. This is false. Better would to run some simulation plugging in birth rates by education, and education and IQ scores. Of course, this would still be wrong since within any category smarter people have less children. But its a step in the right direction. Off the cuff, I guess IQ (for whites at least) will decline 2-3 points in 40 years. Why is this reasonable? Jewish verbal IQ went up ~20 points in 500 years, and there was probably less pressure on that then there is (reverse) pressure on intelligence now.

bgc said...

Another possible adjustment might be to take account of age structure - since it is only the population between about 20 and 65 years old which is relevant to national performance.

On this basis (as well as the dysgenic trend for IQ, and probable continued mass immigration) the 95.5 estimate might be an extreme upper level, and it would probably be considerably lower.

On the other hand, today's smartest Mormons will probably have doubled-and-some in numbers. They may be a large proportion of the ruling elite by then.

Anonymous said...


Utah's birthrate was barely above replacement last I checked. Mormons aren't breeding like people think they are.

rob said...

Israel is fairly diverse, how's that working out? The CIA World Factbook says Uruguay is 8% Mestizo and 4% Black. We're already worse off than that. Christ, we're going to envy the economic dynamism and social stability of Slovenia.

Wow, thanks liberals! I used to think civil war II and WN scenarios were insane. I'm not so sure anymore.

OneSTDV said...

I wrote a post on this recently:

America IQ 2050

Harsh_Henry14W said...

"We're already worse off than that. Christ, we're going to envy the economic dynamism and social stability of Slovenia."

There is not 'going too'...

TODAY the unemployment rate in Michigan is higher then almost all Eastern European Countries!!

The United States is turning into a Third World Dystopia.

Only White Nationalism can offer any economic hope.