As a follow-up to the recent post on marital status and fertility, I used 2000-2010 GSS data to calculate the mean number of offspring for black women ages 40-59 by marital status. I looked at the low- and high-educated separately.
Mean number of offspring
Women with less than four-year degree (sample size = 440)
Married 2.65
Separated/Divorced 2.55
Never-Married 2.34
Women with four-year degree or more (sample size = 111)
Married 2.00
Separated/Divorced 1.62
Never-Married .71*
*significantly lower than corresponding married or separated/divorced groups
In the earlier post, we saw that white never-married women have fewer kids than married or separated/divorced women whether they are more or less educated. For black women, this is true only for educated women. Among less educated blacks, never getting married is not associated with significantly fewer kids.
If marriage disappears completely among blacks, its population will not drop dramatically as we see with whites; by contrast, only fertility among educated blacks--a comparatively small group--will shrink. Let's look on the bright side: the disappearance of your smart people is better than the disappearance of your race.
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At the risk of being controversial, I'm not so sure that losing one's race is all that bad. A hundred years ago educated white men following Darwin and Galton expected Africans and Australians to disappear. Tasmanians actually did disappear.
ReplyDeleteIt follows from liberal diversity thinking that if all races are equally valuable it shouldn't matter which one goes. The world has seven billion people today. If we wanted on environmental grounds to cut back to say four billion people we could do it proportionately and preserve the current racial prportions, or we could cut out all the blacks and Australians. If you believe in equality it shouldn't matter which strategy you adopt.
Albertosaurus
The Tasmanians died out because they were a small, isolated group that had no resistance to diseases introduced by outsiders.
ReplyDeleteIt is likely that in the future infectious diseases will become a bigger demographic factor as diseases that used to be cured start to become un-cured as microbes develop immunity to drugs. MRSA is an example, and others will probably follow.
It is hard to say whether we will have devastating Great Plagues like in the middle ages, but I wouldn't rule it out.
I read Laurie Garret's book The Coming Plague years ago. She was famous for sounding the alarm about the microbes winning because they could evolve resistance so quickly.
ReplyDeleteThe public was supposed to panic I guess about the victory of the germs but other's were trying to panic the public about warming at the same time and the public's total capacity for fear from a speculative catastrophe was limited and warming won out.
We beat infectious disease in the fifties and the little critters are going to stay beat.
I'm sure you know that the 1918 flu actually killed more people than the fourteenth century Bubonic Plague. Of course that was on a much larger population. Strangely the Spanish Flu had rather few social consequences while the Black Death changed everything.
In any case I think mankind and science wins. I'm not worried about bugs.
Certainly it is unlikely that we will see another disease like small pox which had profound differential racial consequences. Man started in Africa. Moved to the great Euro-Asian land mass and developed small pox, measles and other diseases which wiped out the immunologically naive American (and Tasmanian) populations when we started sailing everywhere in the fifteenth century. The Africans were protected from the exploring and imperialistic Europeans by their own diseases while elsewhere disease was working for the European colonists.
I don't see any of that reoccurring. If there is a disease that will differentially kill a race it will likely be an artificial disease. Thomas Harris the famous novelist thinks white people, now that the genome has been cracked, will look for a bug that kills blacks. I have no doubt that some will try but it seems unlikely that they will succeed. Normally I try to restrain my imagination and not predict the future but in this case it seems certain that there must soon be a big Hollywood movie about whites trying to wipe out blacks through their DNA. For years I had wondered when Hollywood would get around to a movie based on the resurrection of dinosaurs.
I'd suggest James Spader for the evil white scientist and Will Smith as hero who scotches the dastardly conspiracy.
Albertosaurus
Do the smart have an advantage in surviving plagues?
ReplyDeleteEvaluations of the plagues in Europe seem to assume that things got better after the plagues because fewer people and more resources despite being technologically in the same place at least immediately. Is it possible that somehow smart people survived at a higher rate and that sparked the renaissance? Because plagues and famines in Africa aren't exactly followed by golden years. So, it doesn't appear that a sudden drop in population is an automatic boom.
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