Friday, February 27, 2009

Hereditarianism and racialism

More than 1,000 white GSS-ers were asked if they felt that having better genes is important for how your life turns out. Look at the graph: those who believe there should be a law prohibiting marriage between blacks and whites are much more likely to think that genes are important.

I wonder if more whites will adopt hardcore racial attitudes as science makes it increasingly obvious that genes matter. Of course, this type of analysis cannot tell us what is causing what. It could easily be: law against marriage <-- racialism --> genes matter. There is no logical necessity that hereditarianism lead to racialism, but I think one could make the case for a historical connection. Many academics believe the two go hand-in-hand and fear the research for this reason.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Homosexuals more likely to break the law? The Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women asked college students about sexual orientation. A criminality scale was constructed for males, but girls were only asked if they had gotten into a physical fight.

Criminality scale

Straight men 1.67 (N = 519)
Gay men and bisexual men 1.84 (N = 39)

Percent in a physical fight in past year

Straight women 7.2 (N = 1,172)
Lesbians and bisexual women 14.4 (N = 28)

The high lesbian rate isn't surprising--I'm reminded of the hooligan dykes in A Confederacy of Dunces--but the higher mean for homosexuals is strange. Crime requires aggressiveness and nerve. We have seen in prior analyses a pattern of dysfunction among homosexuals, bisexuals, and lesbians: their higher rates of early sexual contact, family violence, and drug use. Any explanations?

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

More birth seasonality data: As a follow-up to my post on GSS data and the connection of month of birth to a homosexual orientation, I looked at the The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. They have a larger sample of homosexuals--N = 226 (i.e, ever attracted to a male).

Percent born between August and November (bad months)

Straight boys 34.0
Gay and bisexual boys 34.9

Percent born between January and April (good months)

Straight boys 32.0
Gay and bisexual boys 32.7

No differences here, and a lack of empirical support for "gay germ theory." Keep in mind Agnostic's argument in the last set of comments that birth seasonality is simply not a good test of the theory.

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Here's a comment from Mark over at iSteve's I liked (you know I enjoy hyperbole):

Whites are the first cause; the first movers; God, in effect. Blacks were in an idyllic Eden before the white man came and viciously tore them from it, and in the sweat of their faces shall they eat bread.

In the Eden before the white man came, time did not exist. Evil did not exist. Misery did not exist. Whites then came and tore them from Eden, and the world is a fallen place. And it's all because of whites. And whites, unless we do exactly what blacks say, will frustrate every attempt to restore blacks to their Eden.

Gay germ theory and month of birth

You can find a great analysis over at Congenial Times reporting GSS evidence for Cochran's "gay germ theory." According to the theory, homosexuality is caused by infections affecting brain development. The GSS data shows that a disproportionately high number of gay men are born in June. According to the analyst, if an embryo were conceived in September, he would be exposed during the crucial first trimester to the peak flu season, and would then be born in June.

The problem with this is that, according to the CDC, the peak month for flu for the past 26 years has been February (see the graph above). The peak conception month should be December since Mom and embryo are exposed to three bad months. Looking over a longer period, November through February would be the worst 4 months. The best four months for conception would probably be April through July since you are exposed to no months with a particular flu problem. Focusing on the month of birth instead of conception, the worst period should be August through November and the best, January through April.

I'm looking at 4-month periods because the GSS has a small number of homosexual respondents, and cell sizes increase as we merge them. We can also boost sample size by combining homosexuals and bisexuals (as Congenial Times did, N = 167).

Percent born between August and November (bad months)

Straight men 33.9
Gay and bisexual men 34.2

Percent born between January and April (good months)

Straight men 32.9
Gay and bisexual men 28.8

Gay and bisexual men are a bit less likely to be conceived during the low-risk months, but do not differ from straights during the flu season peak. The evidence here for the theory is weak.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Race, crime, and getting high: The Longitudinal Study of Violence Against Women asked 455 male college students about criminal activities and drug use. Illegal acts ranged from minor items like lying about one's age to more serious crimes like attacking students or carrying weapons. I was interested by the racial pattern:

Mean crime index

Whites 1.73
Blacks 2.09
SD .67

According to conventional wisdom, the only reason why blacks have higher rates of crime is because many are from the lower class. (Many people where I work assume that criminal justice system bias produces the disparity. The self-report data presented here show these guys are full of it.) The social status of black and white students at the same college is similar, but black criminality is half a standard deviation higher.

To be more specific, look at the graph to see the huge difference on the question of hitting other students in the last year.

Mean alcohol and marijuana use index

Whites 4.43
Blacks 3.33
SD 2.37

By contrast, you can see that white college students drink and smoke pot more than their black counterparts. The difference is a little less than one-half of a standard deviation. The stereotype of the drunk frat boy is confirmed.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Gay men skinny, lesbians fat? Doesn't that seem to be the case? Au contraire, says the GSS. I've calculated means and added bisexuals to homosexuals because sample sizes are so low. (Interviewers rated the respondent's weight, scoring them as 1 for below average, 2 for average, 3, for above average, 4 for considerably above average).

Mean weight index

Straight men 2.18 (N = 812)
Gay men 2.26 (N = 38)
Straight women 2.24 (N = 949)
Lesbians 2.12 (N = 16)

Gay men are fatter, and lesbians are skinnier. Assuming this is correct, where would the stereotype come from?

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Should people always obey the law?

GSS respondents (N = 2,475) were asked, "In general, would you say that people should obey the law without exception, or are there exceptional occasions on which people should follow their consciences even if it means breaking the law?"

The graph shows that Mexican Americans are more likely than any other large ethnic group to say one should always obey the law. I'm not sure that this is the best attitude, but Mex-Ams clearly stand out. Blacks and American Indians (on the right end of the chart) are also above average; it looks like higher IQ groups have less absolutist attitudes.

I checked by cross-tabulating this question with IQ (WORDSUM). Wow, smart people respect the following of one's conscience.

I guess my first attempt to find a pro-Mex-Am stat didn't quite work out.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Democrats and reading the other side

Back when I was a liberal, I was willing to read conservatives. You can see what it did to me. These days, I'm less interested in taking the other side seriously. All the action seems to be over here.

But let's see if there is a difference in willingness to read the other side. GSS respondents were asked if they read political websites they didn't agree with. Their answers are listed above by their 2000 vote for president (N = 302). You can see that Gore and Nader voters are a little bit less likely to say no.

Don't gape. It's my (belated) New Year's resolution to try to find stats that support the other side. It's only fair. You won't see me do it much for liberals because, really, I don't give a damn. But my decision to (try to) find favorable numbers for Latinos and assimilation is serious. I haven't found any yet (haven't looked much) but I will.

Monday, February 16, 2009

Cultural literacy and being a naked ape: I've got to second Paul Gottfried's point. His experience with college students has convinced him that they don't know a damn thing about Darwin. But people are wrong to argue that they're ignorant because they have spent all their time learning about Jesus. Truth is, they don't know a damn thing about Him either. Cultural literacy seems to be well-rounded. And so is cultural ignorance. (Examples: Neither Gottfried or Razib, another writer at Taki's, are Christian, but they know more about Christianity than 99% of Christians).

The most important proposal Ron ever made: Human Evolution should be a required general education course in every college in the land. I've attended or worked at six different institutions in my life. None of them required this course or something like it. You answer, what about Introduction to Biology. I respond that: 1) many students don't take that course (they take some other lower-division course in science); and 2) focusing on other organisms allows students to pretend it's not about them.

Let me take it a step further and in a direction one might not expect from a conservative: Require Human Evolution in high school. Socrates said an unexamined life is not worth living. You have little self-knowledge if you don't know that you're a naked ape. Repeat it in front of the mirror ten times a day. I am a naked ape! And a damn proud one!

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Which denomination has the most homosexuals? No, I'm not asking about clergy, so don't answer Catholic. It's those liberal Episcopalians. According to the General Social Survey, the breakdown looks like this (N = 17,969):

Percent of men who are gay

Episcopalian 8.1
Jewish 4.5
No religion 4.4
American Lutheran 3.0
Catholic 2.9
Southern Baptist 2.7
United Methodist 2.4
Christian 1.2

Percent of women who are lesbian

Episcopalian 4.2
No religion 4.1
American Lutheran 3.0
United Methodist 1.8
Catholic 1.5
Jewish 1.0
Southern Baptist 1.1
Christian 1.0

I'm guessing that: 1) more liberal churches don't lose as many of their homosexuals; 2) they gain converts; and 3) homosexuals in conservative denominations are less willing to admit their orientation.

Friday, February 13, 2009

Age and accepting evolution

In honor of Darwin's birthday, Gallup conducted a poll and found all sorts of discouraging things, like how only 39% of Americans accept the theory of evolution. I'd rather focus on the positive part that younger people are more likely to believe it than older people. There is an 18 point gap between the youngest and oldest groups.

I can see this in my own family. Despite my best efforts, both parents are skeptical, but all the kids accept it. On the other hand, I get a lot of resistance in the classroom from students. Many students don't deny it's true, but they make yucky faces if you use it to explain human behavior.

IQ and traffic tickets

Based on the answers of 2,009 respondents (GSS data) the graph shows that the chance of ever getting a traffic ticket goes up with IQ (WORDSUM). This sample includes all races, but the pattern for whites alone is the same.

What's going on here? I suppose that folks with really low IQs are less likely drive, but the pattern holds for the right side of the bell curve. Do smarter people have longer commutes? Do they get bored more easily and fail to pay attention? Myself, I have to listen to audio books when I'm on the road, but I'll admit it's distracting.

(I checked and found that age does not explain the pattern.)

Thursday, February 12, 2009

Getting news from the Internet: The last post on reading newspapers did not consider the possibility that minority groups might get more of their news from the Internet. I doubt it (that's why I didn't look) but I've been wrong before. The Texas Survey of Adults asked how often do people get their news from the Internet.

Percent who get news from the Internet daily

Non-Hispanic whites 31.0
Non-Hispanics blacks 18.5
Hispanics 20.7

I checked the correlation between frequency of Internet and paper reading. It's 0.09, which tells us that the two are basically unrelated. One does not predict the other or substitute for the other. The story here is that NAMs--Hispanics as much as blacks--are poorly informed.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Daily reading: The Survey of Texas Adults asked 1,504 people if they read the newspaper every day. (This is a good sample since there are a large number of Hispanics--25%.)

Percent who read the newspaper daily

Non-Hispanic whites 40.5
Non-Hispanic blacks 30.0
Hispanics 23.6

People generally think of Hispanics as falling somewhere between whites and blacks on social indicators, but it's not uncommon for me to run across statistics which put Latinos at the bottom.

Monday, February 09, 2009

A couple points about abortion and achievement: One argument made in the comment section of the last point is that smart, pregnant girls give up bright futures if they don't get an abortion. It is certainly true than teen motherhood makes it harder to have a successful career. Not impossible, but harder.

One currently popular belief is that if children are going to grow up to become well-adjusted adults, both mom and dad must devote every waking moment to their development. The best research tells us that this is simply not true. If kids were randomly assigned another pair of parents, they would turn out pretty much the same. Research also tells us that day care is not bad for children. So, to all you young women contemplating an abortion, it might be harder, but you don't have to kill your child to get ahead. You might have to give up spending as much time with the little guy, but trust me, if you're the ambitious type you'll enjoy your children more if you're not with them all day. Drop the idea that Junior needs you that much.

Another reader comment was that an intelligent, pregnant teen can always have kids later. While this is true, one demography truism is the longer you wait, the fewer the children you have. I looked at GSS data and found that a delay of ten years translates into one fewer kid for women with the highest IQ (WORDSUM) scores.

I'm not concerned about an overall lack of kids: I'm worried that we're having too many unintelligent kids and not enough smart ones. At the same time, it makes sense for a society to put its female talent to use. While there is tension there, challenging the notion that kids need mom 24/7 can help us achieve both goals.

Sunday, February 08, 2009

Abortion is dysgenic: The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health asked girls who had gotten pregnant what the outcome was. Here are the percentages who aborted by grades in their most recent class:

Percent aborting (N = 87)

A or B in Math 40.5
C or worse in Math 37.8

A or B in Science 41.7
C or worse in Science 23.1

The chance of getting an abortion was not much different between good and bad math students, but the gap is large in science. The smarties are killing off their smarty kids.

Saturday, February 07, 2009

Skin color and IQ

I've copied the correlation table and the results from a 2008 study in Personality and Individual Differences (Templer, Donald. 45, 440-444). From the author's conclusion:
The finding that skin color shows substantial correlations with life expectancy, birth rate, and infant mortality confirms the importance of this variable, as originally identified by Templer and Arikawa (2006). It merits further research given the suggestion made by Jensen (2006) that pleiotropy(genes having more than one effect) may underlie both IQ and skin color. Skin color and IQ have been found to be correlated in several studies of people of mixed-race ancestry Jensen, 1998; Rushton, 2008; Rushton & Jensen,2005).

The nature of a latent common factor such as the r–K dimension requires inference and interpretation. Life history theory provides a central organizing theoretical principle for generating specific predictions as to which traits should be correlated and it suggests physiological processes such as brain functioning that provide a substrate (Jensen, 1998; Rushton, 2004). This latter approach was adopted by Figueredo et al. (2006) who proposed an integration that traced the development of a life history from genes to brain to the various associated components of the reproductive strategy. They explored the psychometrics and behavioral genetics of the K factor, and specific areas of the human brain, including the frontal lobes, amygdala, and hippocampus. They then applied life history theory to predict patterns of development within the brain that are either paedomorphic (i.e., development begins later, proceeds at a slower rate, and has an earlier cessation) or peramorphic (i.e., development begins early, proceeds at a faster rate, and has a later cessation). The theory of r–K reproductive strategies may eventually provide an evolutionary understanding of many seemingly disparate results in personality research.

Friday, February 06, 2009

Assimilation is not working now

English/Welsh ancestry (N = 5,022)

Mexican ancestry (N = 1,165)

Let's use Americans of English or Welsh ancestry as a handy standard of assimilation (GSS data). The top chart shows how dropping out of high school went from almost a quarter to lower than 10%. (Only people 25 and over are included). Those completing a 4-year degree or more has almost reached 40%.

According to the bottom graph, those of Mexican ancestry were improving into the 90s, but the trend has reversed in this decade. Now, 40% are high school dropouts and only 10% get a bachelors or more.

Assimilation is not working now. Immigration from Mexico must come to a dead halt and should not be started up again until residents of Mexican background at least resemble typical Americans. If that never happens, so be it.

Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Schadenfreude: I was struck with the feeling of schadenfreude once again as I read Peter Brimelow's piece about the New York Times smear. He cited Ed Rubenstein's finding that John McCain would have won the election if America's racial balance as of 1976 had not changed. Oh, the delicious contemplation of McCain slowly slitting his own throat over the past three decades.

Bill O'Reilly is at times a bit annoying, but he is on fire since the Times suggested that folks like him and the writers at VDARE are white supremacists. They've gotten his Irish up, and unlike so many men these days, he's not going to lick boots and shut up about illegal immigration.

He is exactly right that the NYT writes this kind of trash in order to make it easier for the Left to turn America into a one-party country. Reilly is a good example for all the women with penises. When someone calls you a racist, don't apologize and volunteer for sensitivity training. Fight back.

This is a prime opportunity for immigration restrictionists. Times are getting tough. Jobs are disappearing at half a million a month. The limited numbers of jobs we have should go to Americans. We need to open up more spots by sending the illegals packing. We can't afford to have all those wages sent to relatives in Mexico. The generosity must end. Americans first. The Open Borders Crowd doesn't give a damn about ordinary Americans, but we do.

Democrats love to tax the crap out of you, and skip on paying their share

From Half Sigma's blog:

Timothy Geithner, and now Nancy Killefer and Tom Daschle. All tax cheats. It’s funny how these Democrats are happy to spend other taxpayers’ money on social programs, but not so eager to actually pay taxes themselves.

Amen. I wish religious people said amen repeatedly so I could do it now. Let me add Al Franken--who has also been accused of failing to pay taxes. (Let's not forget Bill Richardson's shenanigans too).

The General Social Survey asked 733 Americans if they thought cheating on taxes is wrong, and also asked who they voted for in 1996. The graph shows that 16.3% of Clinton voters think tax evasion is not wrong or a little bit wrong, compared to 9.1% of Dole supporters.

Tuesday, February 03, 2009

Stop hatin', start participatin': Not all homosexuals are white! My dad knows I analyze data and asked me if it was true that there are very few homosexual non-whites. He's picked up the stereotype that all gays are Caucasian. (If I were asked, I'd say English). I told him that the prevalence of homosexuals is at least as high among blacks and Hispanics. According to the General Social Survey, it's 3.0% of white men, 5.4% of Hispanics, and 3.8% of blacks. I suggested that non-white homosexuals are more invisible since their ethnic groups are small, and there is less acceptance of the orientation among these groups.

According to The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, 7.0% of white adolescent boys say that they have been romantically attracted to another boy. The corresponding number for blacks is 8.2% and 9.0% for Hispanics (N = 3,101). Interesting how the ranking is the same for the two surveys.

Monday, February 02, 2009

Sex education, birth control, and sex: What's the relationship between sex education and behavior? The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health asked 6,411 teens in 1994 if: 1) they had learned about pregnancy in school, 2) they've had sex, and 3) they used birth control the first time.

Percent who have had sex

Taught about pregnancy in school 41.0
Not taught 33.7

Percent who used protection the first time

Taught about pregnancy in school 67.4
Not taught 57.9

Percent who have had sex and did it unprotected the first time

Taught about pregnancy in school 13.4
Not taught 14.2

Looking at the top numbers, those taught about pregnancy in school were more likely to have sex. They were also more likely to use protection the first time. The two patterns basically offset each other: the bottom numbers show us that the percent of kids who have had sex and did it with no birth control is roughly the same for the two groups.

Sunday, February 01, 2009

The joys of diversity: I ran across a couple of late-breaking Texas stories. In the first, 80 Mexicans were arrested in Martin County for cockfighting. The birds were rigged with knives to make them more deadly. In the other, there have been two riots in two months in a federal detention facility in Pecos that holds illegals. They're rioting because the food and health care are not good enough.
The nativists are rational: In honor of the New York Times fact-free smear of the guys over at VDARE, let's try a novel approach to immigration: statistics.

Our saintly editors mock Marcus Epstein for writing that moderate diversity is good if it brings desirable traditions to the country. So I guess they prefer undesirable traditions? It seems that way. Our cultural elites appear to celebrate the massive movement of illiterates into the country. The more, the better. If I wanted peasants as a political constituency to control and exploit, and if I wanted house servants too dumb to argue with me, I might call immigration restrictionists bad names, too.

The 2001-2003 American Community Survey asked almost 2.4 million people about their birthplace and their educational level. Respondents reported dozens of countries, so let's keep things simple and limit it to the ten most educated groups and the ten least. (Don't ask me who some of these whites are).

Top Ten

Kuwait--nonwhite 13.8
Tanzania--white 13.6
Southwest Asians 13.5
Taiwan--nonwhite 13.4
Malaysia--white 13.4
Cameroon 13.4
Kenya--white 13.4
India--white 13.3
Zimbabwe--nonwhite 13.3
South Africa--white 13.2

Botton Ten

Guatemala--nonwhite 8.03
Laos--white 8.02
El Salvador--white 8.01
Cambodia--white 8.00
Cambodia--nonwhite 7.91
El Salvador--nonwhite 7.79
Azores 7.73
Laos--nonwhite 7.57
Mexico--white 7.49
Mexico--nonwhite 7.14

I'm shocked, shocked that Mexico is on the very bottom of a VERY long list. "7" means the respondents went no further than tenth grade. "13" is for those who completed an associates degree. The New York Times loses sleep over America's educational ills, but welcomes a limitless supply of illiterate, high school dropouts from the south, and libels concerned citizens like Epstein.