tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post116209500490241831..comments2024-03-28T12:16:12.797-07:00Comments on Inductivist: Ron Guhnamehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162464620057513162006-11-02T02:50:00.000-08:002006-11-02T02:50:00.000-08:00I may have found some statistics that lend credenc...I may have found some statistics that lend credence to my spitballing: http://www.iss.co.za/pubs/CrimeQ/No.11/Altbeker.htm (scroll down to "Table 2" under the heading "Using victimisation surveys to rank countries").<BR/><BR/> The sub-Saharan cities listed seem to have generally higher assault rates than the S. American ones. This suggests that Latins are not inherently more violent then blacks and that some sort of structural economic explanation could account for the higher robbery rates. If they're not doing it because of an overarching love of violence, then they must be doing it for the money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162446548300016282006-11-01T21:49:00.000-08:002006-11-01T21:49:00.000-08:00Fred S: Yes, I had (reluctantly) thought about ine...Fred S: Yes, I had (reluctantly) thought about inequality because it is the standard sociological explanation, and there is cross-national research showing a link, at last with homicide. Sociologists, however, usually focus on motivation (e.g., resentment, envy) more than opportunities for crime. The Occam's Razor rule give your idea the advantage.Ron Guhnamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06421460508647618774noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162351028457323612006-10-31T19:17:00.000-08:002006-10-31T19:17:00.000-08:00Just to clarify, I meant "astronomical" in relatio...Just to clarify, I meant "astronomical" in relation to the other First World nations, not as some sort of negative value judgement.<BR/><BR/> According to the ICVS, the differences between the robbery figures from Poland (1.8%) down are statistically insignificant. Suggesting that the USA, for example, is a low-robbery nation is inaccurate.<BR/><BR/> Could greater wealth and income inequality have something to do with the greater prevalence of robbery in S. America vs. Sub-Saharan Africa. For example, people in Uganda and Zimbabwe are so poor (per capita GDP $2000) and so uniform in their poverty (relative to S. America) that the average man on the street probably isn't walking around with anything worthwhile in his pockets. If he has anything of value, it's going to be in his house.<BR/><BR/> In contrast, S. America is relatively richer and with a less equitable income distribution. I imagine there are a lot of lupine, impoverished favela-dwellers eyeing Ipod-wearing middle- and upper-class types.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162321973704515522006-10-31T11:12:00.000-08:002006-10-31T11:12:00.000-08:00I'd ammend jsbolton's claim about half of the top ...I'd ammend jsbolton's claim about half of the top 10 being mixed -- true for Brazil, Colombia, Paraguay, and Bolivia, but not for Argentina, Tunisia, Costa Rica, Zimbabwe, Uganda, nor (the extra one he's probably thinking of) South Africa (which is only 8.8% mixed).<BR/><BR/>Here's how you could test that, though -- if only additive genetic factors were at work, then you'd expect the mixed population's mean to be halfway between the two parental populations' means (or a different fraction if the two parental pops didn't contribute equally to the mixed pop). If the mixed pop's actual criminal value is above, then you've got the antagonistic epistatic effect jsbolton mentioned. If it's below the expected value (even if higher than the less criminal of the two parental pops), then you've got synergistic or positive epistasis.<BR/><BR/>Or, the mean may equal the expected value, but epistatic effects could increase the variance in the mixed pop, leading to proportionally more law-abiding and more criminal individuals in the mixed pop.<BR/><BR/>Has anyone written on this in the race & crime lit?agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162311995347405172006-10-31T08:26:00.000-08:002006-10-31T08:26:00.000-08:00To clarify -- a steady influx of pickpocket target...To clarify -- a steady influx of pickpocket targets would embolden many to take up the practice of pickpocketing, with robbery against co-nationals as collateral damage or their "night job" compared to their "day job" of robbing tourists.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162287185506737222006-10-31T01:33:00.000-08:002006-10-31T01:33:00.000-08:00In order to go further out on the limb of unPCness...In order to go further out on the limb of unPCness, here is an observation:<BR/>Half of the top ten countries<BR/>for robbery are mixed-race populations<BR/>which could of course be a coincidence.<BR/>That is, not mixed in the sense of having different races in the same country more than others do, but having long-term admixed populations from sources originally at high, or even maximum genetic distance.<BR/>Maybe other countries similarly endowed are much lower down on the list.<BR/>In any case, though, this does not argue for hybrid vigor regarding behavioral reticence and restraint, when the interbreeding occurs across maximal genetic distances.<BR/>That is, for there to be such over-representation of the most-mixed among the topmost robbery-prone countries.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162262213500483902006-10-30T18:36:00.000-08:002006-10-30T18:36:00.000-08:00Re: personality, criminals do tend to be extravert...Re: personality, criminals do tend to be extraverts, but more important is Psychoticism (or the combination of low Agreeableness and low Conscientiousness for the "Big Five" measures). In that post, there's a list of Psychoticism scores, but they appear only weakly related to the robbery rates. Some reasons why:<BR/><BR/>1) As you mentioned, a high Extraversion score is a must (so Japan and Hong Kong are out).<BR/><BR/>2) There must be a steady stream of rich-country tourists to pickpocket. That's why Spain is so high -- their economy was built on & still relies almost entirely on tourism. If memory serves, Barcelona's the pickpocket capital of Europe because it's the most heavily visited European city, mostly by rich-country tourists.agnostichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12967177967469961883noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26188478.post-1162235744726818612006-10-30T11:15:00.000-08:002006-10-30T11:15:00.000-08:00Why are you using the Heritage rankings of economi...Why are you using the Heritage rankings of economic freedom? The ones from Fraser are much better. http://freetheworld.com/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com